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Predictions for 2009


Nathan Strum

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Well, last year I made my predictions for 2008. Let's see how I did...

  • "Apple will release a lightweight MacBook." - Right.
  • "Apple will release a touch-screen tablet computer, with a stand/docking station that basically turns it into an iMac (with the addition of a wireless keyboard and mouse)." - Wrong. I have no doubt Apple has a touch-screen tablet computer in their labs, but I doubt they'll bring it to market. The market just isn't there (especially with the iPhone filling a lot of that niche.) However, if you really want one...
  • "Some major update of the Apple TV. I don't think Apple has given up on this yet. I'm hoping they'll add DVR capabilities to it, but I'm not holding my breath. I expect it to be more of a movie/TV show player for stuff you buy (or rent) through iTunes. The difference will be - you can rent movies directly through it from the comfort of your sofa." - Partially right. You can rent movies from your sofa, but still no DVR though. I've got a DVR through AT&T's U-Verse now anyway, so I don't need one from Apple. So nyahh! :P
  • "Updated iPhone. 3G is already a given, but I expect to see one with GPS built-in, too." - Right. I never would have predicted the success of the App store though. Really... who could have guessed?
  • "Blu-Ray support will finally show up this Summer at WWDC. With it, will come either an update to DVD Studio Pro, or an all new app for authoring Blu-Ray discs." - Wrong. Still waiting for this to happen. Steve Jobs hinted that the sticking point is licensing issues with Sony. That really wouldn't surprise me one bit.
  • "Blu-Ray will win over HD-DVD." - Right. I almost bought a Blu-Ray player over Thanksgiving weekend (the Sony BDP-S350 was selling for $199, but now the price is back up, so I'm holding off). I already have one Blu-Ray disc that I got for Christmas (Wall-E), but there are only a handful of other titles at this point that I'd want to buy. So I can wait.
  • "Lawsuits over HD-DVD. After HD-DVD disappears, expect people to start suing retailers, movie studios and Toshiba, for having sold them an obsolete technology." - Wrong. Never materialized, although if you search around, you can see some discussions about it.
  • "The Wii will increase its lead - if it can keep good software coming." - Right. The Wii is dominating, despite a lower price (and two bundled games) for the XBox 360. Fun gameplay, it seems, wins out over flashy graphics. Who knew?
  • "The PS3 will remain a distant third unless two things happen:
    1. Blu-Ray is declared the winner, and the format wars end. Then people will be actively looking for a Blu-Ray player. But only if:
    2. Sony slashes the price of the PS3. I expect to see a slim-line, lower cost PS3, but not until the end of 2009."
      - Right and Wrong. The PS 3 is still a distant third. Even though Blu-Ray won out, Blu-Ray players are now half the price of a PS3, as is the XBox 360. So people looking for current-gen gaming and a Blu-Ray player don't need to go to Sony. Sony never came out with a lower cost PS3, but needs to now, more than ever.

So how about some Predictions for 2009?

  • Nothing spectacular from Apple, but steady progress and upgrades. Updated iMacs and Minis with faster CPUs and better graphics chipsets (like what are now in the MacBooks) are a certainty. The Mac Pros will also get a new CPU this year (the Core i7) and faster graphics.
  • Apple will ship OS X 10.6 sometime in the summer. It's already known this is going to be a stability/performance release, which is sorely needed. Unfortunately, it's also the first OS X release to require an Intel based Mac. I still own a PPC (G5) iMac.
  • The iPhone will continue to see minor hardware improvements (more storage, better camera) but most advancements will come through software. I'll likely buy one after the next hardware revision.
  • The Apple TV will either be transformed this year into something more useful, or it will die off.
  • Blu-Ray will gradually increase its market share, but won't replace DVDs anytime soon. It needs further cuts in Blu-Ray player prices, and a lot more Blu-Ray discs on the market. Expect to see a lot more Disney/Pixar films on Blu-Ray this year.
  • The Wii will continue to dominate. There seems to be no end of demand for this thing.
  • The PS3 will continue to lag behind in a distant third, and will fall even further behind the other two. Sometime this year, Sony will cut the price on the PS3. It just won't be by enough.
  • Gran Turismo 5 still will not ship this year.
  • The new Star Trek movie is going to be dreadful. However, it's going to be worth paying to see, just for the train-wreck value of it.

Finally, a new feature: Wishful Thinking (things that should happen, but probably won't):

  • Apple should merge the Mac Mini and Apple TV into one product. Expand the functionality of the latter, and decrease the price of the former.
  • Apple needs to suck it up and embrace Blu-Ray. Not everyone is going to be happy downloading their grainy "HD" movies off iTunes. Add it to the Mac Mini/Apple TV at a price point that makes it a no-brainer for people to buy for their home entertainment systems.
  • Nintendo should buy out Atari from Infogrames. The Big N is the perfect owner for all of Atari's classic properties. The Wii and DS are ideal platforms for being able to download and play those classic games exclusively. Infogrames is still a company of idiots, run by idiots.
  • Sony should slash the price of Blu-Ray players to around $129, and the PS3 to $199. At some point, they're going to have to eat the cost on these things big-time to gain market share. They should also start up a "Greatest Hits" series for the PS3, bringing low-cost titles (under $25) to the console.
  • Star Wars (the original theatrical release) needs to come out on Blu-Ray, in a fully restored, cleaned-up version, but without any digital "enhancements". C'mon George, get with it already. (Same goes for Empire and Jedi.)
  • Tron needs to come out on Blu-Ray, and likely will. But will it be this year? It depends on if Tron 2 is far enough along in production for a theatrical trailer to be included on it.
  • Star Trek movies on Blu-Ray. Do a good job this time. Clean them up. Remaster them. And don't skimp on the bonus stuff. (You can, however, skip over ST5 and all of the Next Gen films.)
  • Raiders of the Lost Ark on Blu-Ray. (See also: Star Wars.) Why isn't this on Blu-Ray already? Seems to me it took forever for the DVD to come out, so I'm wondering if this will follow suit.

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Nintendo should buy out Atari from Infogrames. The Big N is the perfect owner for all of Atari's classic properties. The Wii and DS are ideal platforms for being able to download and play those classic games exclusively. Infogrames is still a company of idiots, run by idiots.

I'm no expert, but I think the issue with this is that a lot of the really iconic properties that people associate with "Atari" aren't owned by Infogrammes. A lot of them are actually Activision or Atari coin-op licenses. Probably by buying out what Infogrammes owns of Atari you just get the actual 2600 licenses. So, you get the 2600 version of Asteroids, Crystal Castles, Space Invaders, Missile Command, Centipede, but you can't make a new version of it (for that, you have to deal with whoever owns the original coin-op license). And etc. And we love the 2600, but how big of a market do you think there is here? The market space of "re-issued 2600 classics" has been pretty saturated over the last ten years, with compilation discs, dating back to the PlayStation, plus the FB and FB2. I just don't think the Atari properties that Infogrammes owns are worth much.

 

At least that's how I think things stand; I'm sure I'm wrong on several points. :)

 

Sony should slash the price of...the PS3 to $199. At some point, they're going to have to eat the cost on these things big-time to gain market share. They should also start up a "Greatest Hits" series for the PS3, bringing low-cost titles (under $25) to the console.

I wonder if, two years in, it's too late for the PS3. Many of the blockbusters have come out already: MGS 4, GTA IV, Guitar Hero, Rock Band, etc. If PS3 hasn't made inroads after 2 years and shooting their big guns, will they ever? Maybe, but I kind of doubt it.

 

I think/hope 2009 will end up being the year of the Wii; the year that the big development studios realize that, despite what they thought going in, the money is in the Wii - and so they will start developing on the Wii and port upwards to the PS3/Xbox360 rather than the other way around. :)

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I think/hope 2009 will end up being the year of the Wii; the year that the big development studios realize that, despite what they thought going in, the money is in the Wii - and so they will start developing on the Wii and port upwards to the PS3/Xbox360 rather than the other way around. :)

 

Well, EA just announced "MySims Party" and "MySims Racing" instead of "Mirrors Edge 2" or "Dead Space 2" :)

 

Joking aside though, actually I fully agree and share your hopes. I really love my Wii and 2009 seems to start with several big bangs already, I just read a first 90% Tenchu 4 review :)

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A lot of them are actually Activision or Atari coin-op licenses. Probably by buying out what Infogrammes owns of Atari you just get the actual 2600 licenses. So, you get the 2600 version of Asteroids, Crystal Castles, Space Invaders, Missile Command, Centipede, but you can't make a new version of it (for that, you have to deal with whoever owns the original coin-op license).

Atari Games (who is owned by Midway, which is probably owned by someone else...) has the Atari coin-op rights post-1984 (not sure the exact break - but it coincides with the Tramiel takeover). The coin-op rights prior to that are still owned by Infogrames (Asteroids, Battlezone, Tempest, etc.). Of course, arcade games they licensed for the US arcade market (Dig Dug, Pole Position, etc.) or home games (Space Invaders, Phoenix, etc.), are still owned by the original copyright holders (Namco, Taito, etc.).

 

And etc. And we love the 2600, but how big of a market do you think there is here? The market space of "re-issued 2600 classics" has been pretty saturated over the last ten years, with compilation discs, dating back to the PlayStation, plus the FB and FB2. I just don't think the Atari properties that Infogrammes owns are worth much.

Well, I did say it was wishful thinking. :)

 

I wonder if, two years in, it's too late for the PS3. Many of the blockbusters have come out already: MGS 4, GTA IV, Guitar Hero, Rock Band, etc. If PS3 hasn't made inroads after 2 years and shooting their big guns, will they ever? Maybe, but I kind of doubt it.

I doubt it as well - Sony has been largely written-off by the videogaming masses as just too expensive (especially in the current economy). If they can price it competitively though, I think they can bounce back. There are still a lot of Sony fans out there. But I don't really expect them to drop the price this year by more than $50, and I don't think that will happen until late in the year. But Sony isn't likely to give up on the PS3 - they've got too much invested in it.

 

I think/hope 2009 will end up being the year of the Wii; the year that the big development studios realize that, despite what they thought going in, the money is in the Wii - and so they will start developing on the Wii and port upwards to the PS3/Xbox360 rather than the other way around. :)

That would be very cool indeed. I'd love to see more mainstream series hit the Wii (Burnout for example). Maybe then I'd actually buy one. :)

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Star Trek movies on Blu-Ray. Do a good job this time. Clean them up. Remaster them. And don't skimp on the bonus stuff. (You can, however, skip over ST5 and all of the Next Gen films.)

 

May 12th, apparently. (Thanks for the heads-up, Albert.)

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Cool - been wondering when the original series was coming out on Blu-Ray. I saw some of the remastered episodes on TV and was very impressed with what they'd done, in both the quality of the High Def picture and the updated special effects. Sadly the local channel stopped showing them (they were at odd hours like 3 am one week, 12:15 am the next, but the DVR made that a non issue).

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The logic of a hi-def Blu-Ray version of a 4:3, fuzzy TV show from the 60's that originally aired on fuzzy, interlaced tube TVs escapes me. I get that their are fans and all but at some point they just have to stop rereleasing the same stuff over and over and over. The DVDs already look better than the original ever did and there's so much more stuff out there that has never seen the light of day on DVD or even VHS. They just keep picking the low hanging fruit and letting the tasty morsels located higher up to rot on the branch.

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The logic of a hi-def Blu-Ray version of a 4:3, fuzzy TV show from the 60's that originally aired on fuzzy, interlaced tube TVs escapes me.

 

A lot of the old TV shows weren't recorded on video tape, they were filmed. They've gone back to the original film (and/or negatives) and scanned them in high def. I've seen an number of old shows on HDnet (such as Hogan's Heroes, Square Pegs and Charlie's Angels) and the detail is amazing. I found a screen grab of Spock from TOS that shows the detail.

 

As for the 4:3, I've always preferred to see shows and movies in their original aspect ratio as you see what was intended. For Hogan's Heroes they cropped it to 16:9, it results in a lot of extreme close-ups an who knows what got chopped out of the picture.

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For Hogan's Heroes they cropped it to 16:9, it results in a lot of extreme close-ups an who knows what got chopped out of the picture.

I hate when they do that. There are a bunch of real idiots doing HD out there. There are some channels (HGTV and Food Network are the worst) that can't figure out how to properly format for HD. They end up taking their 4:3 material, and distorting it to fit the screen. It's almost like looking through a fisheye lens - the outer edges are stretched, while the center of the image is (mostly) normal. It's actually a little nauseating to watch when there's any sort of panning going on. Worse still, shows that were natively shot in widescreen get the same treatment, so you're seeing it letterboxed and stretched in HD, when they don't even need to! ESPN gets it right: HD is shown in full screen, 4:3 material is pillarboxed within that. For the standard def feed, they send out just the middle 4:3 area of the screen.

 

I hate it when they can't figure out to just leave the original aspect ratio alone. I think they assume consumers would complain, because the TV watching public wants their new HD TVs completely filled with the picture, even if it's wrong. It's like the opposite of when people would buy a letterboxed VHS tape, and complain about it not filling the screen on their old TVs. I like that they remastered Trek in 4:3. It has the resolution of HD (and looks really good), but I'm not losing any of the original picture. The black edges of the screen don't bother me at all.

 

There are cases where films are shot full-frame though, then re-cropped differently for different movie screens. WarGames and Cloak & Dagger are two examples. (The WarGames DVD is widescreen, but the print they run on TV is 4:3 from a larger master.) The difference here though, is that when these films were shot, the eventual widescreen cropping was kept in mind. In fact, on some films the 4:3 prints reveal stuff that was meant to be left out of the frame.

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Speaking of cropping, I can't prove it but I suspect for the "widescreen" DVD release of At The Earth's Core they actually took a 4:3 print and cropped into that. The result is a lot of uninteresting closeups of people noses and bad compositions.

 

 

Yes, At The Earth's Core. Yes, Doug McClure. So?

 

I should really consider using a different screen name when I admit to some of this. ;)

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IMDB says it's originally supposed to have been 1.85:1. What I've seen sometimes, is they'll take a widescreen print, crop it to 4:3, then letterbox that again to widescreen. I've only seen this on TV, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if some cheap DVDs did that.

 

You're not the only one who noticed it.

 

This blurb on VistaVision describes the way it's supposed to be done.

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The iPhone will continue to see minor hardware improvements (more storage, better camera) but most advancements will come through software. I'll likely buy one after the next hardware revision.

Oh yeah... that's what I'm talkin' 'bout. Looks like an iPhone is in my not-too-distant future.

 

And incidentally... Safari 4 is way faster. It doesn't, however, fix sites like IGN which are a morass of bloated code and bad design, and probably wouldn't work on any browser.

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