(Insert stupid Blog name here)

Apple will...

 

I've been an Apple user for almost as long as I can remember and, with some exceptions, I still think that the Apple user experience is superior to most others. But I am really sick of Apple lately. They're right up there with Facebook, Twitter, and whatever else passes for technology news these days. They are all over the place and seem to have supplanted all real technology news. Things like finding new planets, ice on mars, retiring space shuttles, etc. Nobody seems to think these things are as important as unfriending, tweeting, and whether or not there's an app for that.

 

Preposterous, and not so much Star Trek as Star Trek flavored, but not horribly awful.

 

I just saw this about a week ago. I guess you're right that it wasn't horribly awful and I like the flavored comment. It wasn't Star Trek though. And maybe I'm just too old but making Kirk out to be James Dean and a multimillion (heck, who am I kidding...multi billion probably) dollar high tech spaceship being run by the cast of 90210 is just plain stupid.

 

Blu-Ray will continue to gain market share.

 

I remain unconvinced about Blu-Ray. Yeah, it'll gain market share because it's really the only simple option now. But there are way too many technologies that currently exist that are poised to obsolete Blu-Ray or any media that involves buying and storing lots of boxes. I get that everyone wants to own their media, myself included. I just think it can be done without adding a media rack in the bathroom to store more stuff. MP3 taught us this. Say what you will about quality, bit rates, whatever. It's quicker, easier, and has changed the way people experience music.

 

The successor to the Wii may be announced this year.

 

This is interesting and may be true. Simply because Microsoft's Project Natal is poised to obsolete gaming as we know it. In some ways it's just a deluxe version of the Playstation 2 Eye Toy technology. In other ways, they seem to have really thought about the best ways to use this technology in gaming and other applications. I could see the XBox 360/Natal being the first true lifestyle digital media hub. I could also see it being squandered and mismarketed simply because it's Microsoft and they like to complicate things.

 

Maybe it's just not possible to create a movie that lives up to the kind of expectations I have for this one.

 

Regarding the new Tron movie, I tend to agree with this statement. Simply because the original debuted a brand new look and technology with the 3D graphics. The technology has advanced greatly and looks better than ever but it's still the same technology debuted with Tron and mastered with Jurassic Park.

 

Star Wars will finally come out on Blu-Ray

 

Put me in the skeptical column (I know, big surprise) on this one. It's Lucas' meal ticket. Blu-Ray has the potential to essentially give away all the magic of the original films. After everyone has access to Blu-Ray Star Wars, and after Blu-Ray is hacked, and writable on PCs, George will have nothing to hang over our heads. You can argue that he could still sell 3D versions or some other nonsense but at that point it will be obvious he's just polishing an old turd.

 

Tron will come out on Blu-Ray this year

 

I'll give you this one. And this will tempt me to buy Blu-Ray. But I won't.

Blu-Ray ...

Thanks for the Disney link.

I agree that the shift from DVD to BluRay has started, much like the shift from VHS to DVD a decade ago. However, I won't be upgrading my entire DVD collection as the quality improvement isn't worth the cost.

 

Gran Turismo 5 for the PS3

There's a free demo time-limited available from the PS store, which I bet is to re-ignite interest in the game. Based on the demo it's for the hard-core sim drivers only. I predict it won't boost PS3 sales significantly. If it had been available during the first year then it might have driven systems sales, but not now.

 

PS3 ....

In November I found I couldn't recommend the PS3 to my boss as a mid-range Blu-Ray player which also plays games since he didn't have any "must buy" PS3 games. (He has a Wii and plays PC MMORPGs.) Not when the cost of a PS3 + remote was $150 more than a bargain Blu-Ray player. If Sony really wants to appeal to that market then they need to at least include the remote. I don't think increasing the size of the hard drive will increase sales. IMHO another price drop is unlikely as long as the PS3 is doing okay relative to the 360. I suspect Sony's focus is on the PS4 especially since Larabee isn't an option.

 

Wii ...

Future price drops will be dependent on whether the recent price drop met the expected targets. An HD Wii depends on whether the graphics API allows for seamless upscaling. Otherwise I bet Nintendo will save HD for the next generation, allow Wii market share to erode and laugh all the way to the bank. Hmm... I wonder if Microsoft would license Natal to Nintendo?

I believe Blu-Ray is going to pick up some momentum this year. I was amazed (grateful?) to see prices on players and movies drop precipitously during the holiday shopping season. Many Blu-Ray movies were priced less than their DVD counterparts at Amazon.com! I picked up several new Blu-Ray movies (such as the new Harry Potter film) for only $14.99, and many of these included a DVD version and a digital version you can copy to you computer. I was also surprised to see many Blu-Ray players in places like Wal-Mart priced between $100 and $125.

 

I was in Best Buy recently and it looked like they had more standalone Blu-Ray players than DVD players. The Blu-Ray section in their stores continue to grow in size and I imagine by the 2010 holiday season Blu-Ray will pick up some good momentum. If Star Wars actually does come out this year on Blu-Ray (I'm doubtful as well) that will seriously help propel Blu-Ray into the foreground.

 

As far as Apple's tablet, it will be very interesting to see what happens. Could be a game changer, could be another "Apple TV" ho-hum device. If Steve Jobs' supposed involvement with the tablet is true (easy to believe) and he is incredibly satisfied with it as has been reported (who knows), then it could be another iPhone-like device that finally brings tablet computing some respect.

 

I have an iPhone 3G and am watching what happens with the new Google Nexus phone carefully. It looks pretty appealing, except that here in the US it's tied to T-Mobile if you want to use 3D services, and of course at the moment has a much smaller base of applications. But the Droid platform is finally bringing serious competition to the iPhone, which will force Apple to compete. Should be pretty exciting this year on the smartphone front.

 

..Al

I'm looking forward to an official announcement of the Apple tablet and the revelation of it's killer gimmick(s) (virtual keyboard?). At the moment, I don't understand where a tablet computer successfully fits in to Apple's lineup, let alone the market at large.

I'm looking forward to an official announcement of the Apple tablet and the revelation of it's killer gimmick(s) (virtual keyboard?). At the moment, I don't understand where a tablet computer successfully fits in to Apple's lineup, let alone the market at large.

See Ars Technica for an op-ed on the tablet which sounds reasonable - i.e. a distinct device between the iPod Touch and the MacBook lines. Take the media and online abilities of the Touch and ramp them up to a larger screen and add in eBooks.

Thanks for the pointer on Disney's upgrade plan. I don't plan to upgrade a majority of my DVDs, but I do see a few that I'd like to(pretty much the Pixar ones).

 

PS3 ....

In November I found I couldn't recommend the PS3 to my boss as a mid-range Blu-Ray player which also plays games since he didn't have any "must buy" PS3 games. (He has a Wii and plays PC MMORPGs.) Not when the cost of a PS3 + remote was $150 more than a bargain Blu-Ray player. If Sony really wants to appeal to that market then they need to at least include the remote. I don't think increasing the size of the hard drive will increase sales. IMHO another price drop is unlikely as long as the PS3 is doing okay relative to the 360. I suspect Sony's focus is on the PS4 especially since Larabee isn't an option.

arket share to erode and laugh all the way to the bank. Hmm... I wonder if Microsoft would license Natal to Nintendo?

PS3 is still the most future-proof blu-ray player that I'm aware of - 3D Blu-ray standard outlined, includes PS3.

 

Found this to be interesting - blu-ray discs can be bumped from 25GB per layer to 33.4 GB and still play on existing players. I imagine it's like how the spec for CDs calls for 650MB-74 min but discs with capacities of 700-80, 790-90 and 870-99 can be used.

I am really sick of Apple lately. They're right up there with Facebook, Twitter, and whatever else passes for technology news these days.

 

Case in point. This is the science/technology section of Google News, my home page. To my knowledge this is an auto generated news page that is based partially on what people seem to be most interested in. As of this posting that link shows 20 headlines. This is how they break down:

 

4 headlines deal with Apple iPhones, apps, and rumored products. Science rumors?

 

4 headlines are other smartphone related articles concerning Nokia, Palm, and others.

 

3 headlines are concerning Facebook & Twitter.

 

1 concerns a video game release.

 

1 concerns CES 2010

 

6 concern other fly-by-night websites, technologies, or devices that are more about business than technology. Skype, E-Readers, Skiff, Windows 7, Eye Fi, etc.

 

And buried way down at the bottom of the list, presented as almost an afterthought, is the fact that a NASA telescope discovered 5 new fiery planets. All 5 of them apparently glow "like a blast furnace" and one of them seems to be as lightweight as styrofoam. I can't believe that this kind of technology news takes a distant backseat to the latest plastic device that will be rotting in a landfill 3 years from now that used to run a forgotten computer OS to do some menial, obsolete task.

I'm looking forward to an official announcement of the Apple tablet and the revelation of it's killer gimmick(s) (virtual keyboard?). At the moment, I don't understand where a tablet computer successfully fits in to Apple's lineup, let alone the market at large.

See Ars Technica for an op-ed on the tablet which sounds reasonable - i.e. a distinct device between the iPod Touch and the MacBook lines. Take the media and online abilities of the Touch and ramp them up to a larger screen and add in eBooks.

The gap there is too small. I don't see a device like that being successful, at least not in the immediate future. If the tablet is indeed the relatively prosaic device described in that article, then it strikes me as unwise for Apple to dilute the iPhone and Mac brands by wedging a tablet in between them. Obviously, this device will have to create its own market, so at what price is the device described in that article attractive? Over $500-$600, without a killer gimmick, and I think it's dead on arrival.

But I am really sick of Apple lately. They're right up there with Facebook, Twitter, and whatever else passes for technology news these days. They are all over the place and seem to have supplanted all real technology news. Things like finding new planets, ice on mars, retiring space shuttles, etc. Nobody seems to think these things are as important as unfriending, tweeting, and whether or not there's an app for that.

That's not Apple's fault though - it's the media's. The media focuses far too much on the same stupid things over and over. Of course, that's just a reflection on the public's focus on stupid things. (Don't get me started on Twitter and Facebook... I'm sick to death of people asking me to join them.)

 

This is the science/technology section of Google News, my home page.

 

And buried way down at the bottom of the list, presented as almost an afterthought, is the fact that a NASA telescope discovered 5 new fiery planets. All 5 of them apparently glow "like a blast furnace" and one of them seems to be as lightweight as styrofoam. I can't believe that this kind of technology news takes a distant backseat to the latest plastic device that will be rotting in a landfill 3 years from now that used to run a forgotten computer OS to do some menial, obsolete task.

Maybe you need to change your home page.

 

Put me in the skeptical column (I know, big surprise) on this one. It's Lucas' meal ticket. Blu-Ray has the potential to essentially give away all the magic of the original films. After everyone has access to Blu-Ray Star Wars, and after Blu-Ray is hacked, and writable on PCs, George will have nothing to hang over our heads. You can argue that he could still sell 3D versions or some other nonsense but at that point it will be obvious he's just polishing an old turd.

I think the fact that Star Wars is Lucas' meal ticket is why it will come out on Blu-Ray. He's saturated the DVD market with it, so this is the only physical media left he can sell it on again. (Well, there will apparently be the 3-D Blu-Ray spec in several years, but he'll have to saturate the 2-D market, first.)

However, I won't be upgrading my entire DVD collection as the quality improvement isn't worth the cost.

I don't have much of a DVD collection in the first place. I learned years ago to be pretty selective about what I buy. I'll upgrade some of my favorites, but that still only amounts to about a dozen movies or so. There's some stuff I've never owned on DVD, which I will get on Blu-Ray (the original Star Trek series, for example), and some stuff that isn't worth getting on Blu-Ray, because the original source material wasn't suitable for HD anyway. But for the ones that I really enjoy watching, it's worth the investment in those titles. But I think of Blu-Ray as an adjunct to my DVDs - not an outright replacement.

 

There's a free demo time-limited available from the PS store, which I bet is to re-ignite interest in the game. Based on the demo it's for the hard-core sim drivers only. I predict it won't boost PS3 sales significantly.

There are usually some more arcade-like elements in the GT series though. Certainly though, they've got a lot of competition in the racing genre now, where they used to be clearly at the top of the heap. Everyone else is starting to catch up to them in terms of quality.

 

An HD Wii depends on whether the graphics API allows for seamless upscaling. Otherwise I bet Nintendo will save HD for the next generation, allow Wii market share to erode and laugh all the way to the bank.

I think it will be a next gen (or rather, Nintendo's version of the current gen) console, but will retain the Wii name, much like the XBox 360 and PS3. So, the Wii2 or WiiToo or WiiII.

 

Hmm... I wonder if Microsoft would license Natal to Nintendo?

Nope. But they'd sell Nintendo a license to make games for the XBox 360.

See Ars Technica for an op-ed on the tablet which sounds reasonable - i.e. a distinct device between the iPod Touch and the MacBook lines. Take the media and online abilities of the Touch and ramp them up to a larger screen and add in eBooks.

The gap there is too small. I don't see a device like that being successful, at least not in the immediate future. If the tablet is indeed the relatively prosaic device described in that article, then it strikes me as unwise for Apple to dilute the iPhone and Mac brands by wedging a tablet in between them. Obviously, this device will have to create its own market, so at what price is the device described in that article attractive? Over $500-$600, without a killer gimmick, and I think it's dead on arrival.

I still think the educational market could be a huge selling point for this device. I'm apparently not the only one. There are currently about 17 million college students in the U.S. alone. Just tapping into a fraction of that market would make the product a success. Beyond that are another 17 million students in jr. high and high school. Textbook publishers would love this sort of technology since they wouldn't have to deal with the hassles of publishing and updating physical copies of their books. Just update and download digital versions to tablet devices. They'd make more money by reducing overhead (shipping costs, unsold books, storage, printing costs, etc.) and would likely make the books rentable for a semester (or year) at a time. To cut down on piracy, the book could be tied to a single tablet by its hardware ID. For students wishing to own them permanently, they'd pay a higher fee. The books would cost the students less, while earning the publishers more profits. The students would love them because of the convenience of carrying just one device with them (instead of a huge stack of books), that was instantly searchable and continually updatable. The cost of the tablet would be almost negligible in the overall cost of a college education, and high schools (some of which already provide laptops for their students) would likely be willing to provide tablets for students to use during the school year, in favor of having to continually purchase and replace textbooks on an annual basis.

 

Apply this to magazines and newspapers which are both rapidly dying off in the print world, and you have a pretty compelling use for a tablet computer. The Kindle and other e-readers are very limited in their scope, but still manage to sell pretty well. Add the functionality of an iPhone, with a larger, color screen, to that of an e-reader, and I think there's a market there. By announcing it early, Apple can position itself (and educational markets, and publishers) for the coming school year.

 

I'd even be tempted to get one in lieu of a laptop, if it could run OS X and apps like Photoshop.

 

As long as I could use a stylus with it. I can't draw with my finger.

That's not Apple's fault though - it's the media's. The media focuses far too much on the same stupid things over and over. Of course, that's just a reflection on the public's focus on stupid things. (Don't get me started on Twitter and Facebook... I'm sick to death of people asking me to join them.)

 

True. I wasn't implying Apple has done anything wrong but become successful. After I reread my post it seemed pretty curmudgeony and maybe aimed at Apple. It wasn't, It was aimed at all the lemmings.

I'm just not buying the Natal hype. That thing is destined to bomb hugely.

 

It's going to turn out like the Wii in this way: they hype has been huge but as it gets closer and closer to release, and past, reality will set in and the gaming press and the gamers that read the gaming press are going to turn on it and turn their backs on it. The Wii succeeded because it turns out that there is a huge market beyond gamers that read the gaming press. I just can't see Microsoft making much progress breaking into that market.

If Apple's exclusivity deal with AT&T expires, Apple will add another carrier to the iPhone. But I don't think they'll outright dump AT&T, because Jobs would want to play the two companies against each other for Apple's benefit.

I really hope you are right on this one. AT&T's coverage is beyond poor where I live and I would switch to Verizon in a second if I could.

Gran Turismo 5 for the PS3 will finally ship this year, but who knows exactly when.

 

Or maybe not.

Apple again delays 27-inch iMac shipment by 3 weeks

 

Two words: Blu-Ray.

 

Or is that one word?

 

Anyway, Blu-Ray. Announced next week as part of Apple's media thingy. Along with the Apple Tablet, Caplet, Capsule, and Suppository.

 

Oh, and iLife '10.

You know, this tablet thing might make a really slick gaming device.

Here's another reason Apple should adopt Blu-Ray drives...

 

The new version of Final Cut Studio comes on seven DVDs. The thing is major chore to install. Same goes for Adobe's application suites, which also come on multiple DVDs. Blu-Ray would make that a whole lot simpler, especially for colleges. Like the one I work at. Where we have dozens of computers running Final Cut (40 in my area alone).

No Blu-Ray announcements. Bummer.

 

But...

 

Apple will release a tablet computer. They'll announce it in January, but it won't ship until later in the year. It will be more than just a big iPod, and Apple will have some sort of killer feature or use for it that probably nobody has figured out yet. One thing that would be a great use: downloadable textbooks. This would be a huge boon to the education market. Cheaper e-textbooks that can be digitally updated. Man, I would've loved that when I was in college. The big question... can Apple make the tablet affordable enough?

 

Well, I was mostly right, although it is just a big iPod, and the killer feature didn't materialize.

 

I had hoped for a more full-fledged Mac OS X tablet, but I still think textbooks could be a big deal with this. Apple downplayed that during the keynote, but we'll see how it all pans out.

So, what are the predictions for Nintendos Media Summit next week?

 

I fear it'll be all about the successor of the DS line of products. No surprises here I guess: Two screens, microphone, cameras, backwards compatible, power wise close to the gamecube, physical media, flash, tilt sensors, built-in facebook client, maybe biofeedback. And Zelda, Mario, Metroid for it

 

I don't think we'll see Virtual Boy 2 or a HD Wii. Maybe +Motes that don't require a dongle

 

If there should be any game surprises for the Wii, then I'd think at best they'll show more from Metroid Mother and SMG2, keeping the rest for the E³. If we're insanely lucky maybe the new Retro Studios project is revealed. Personally I'd love to hear from a new Fire Emblem, Disaster or Another Code 3, but I assume chances are rather low

 

I'm just not buying the Natal hype. That thing is destined to bomb hugely.

 

It should be able to replicate the Police 24/7 experience in your living room, which would be incredible

I fear it'll be all about the successor of the DS line of products.

I'd bet against it. The DSi is only a year old and it came out 4 years after the DS*. Far too soon for anything other than a form factor tweak (like the XL). I also think Nintendo will wait and see whether downloads can/will replace store sales. (Consider there are only a handful of DSi retail games and the catalog of DSiWare games is still quite small.) Nintendo loves control, but they love money more. Sony tried to force users with the PSPgo and I don't think anyone would say it has been a success.

 

*Japan release dates:

1989 Apr Gameboy

1998 Oct Gameboy Color

2001 Mar Gameboy Advance

2004 Dec DS

2008 Nov DSi

The DSi is only a year old and it came out 4 years after the DS*. Far too soon for anything other than a form factor tweak (like the XL).

 

I'd argue that DSi already was the form factor tweak, and that overall the DS technology is now twice as old as the GBA was when the DS was introduced. Also considering the handheld market in Japan, it seems as if the PSP is outselling the DSi regularly lately.

So, what are the predictions for Nintendos Media Summit next week?

I didn't even know there was one.

 

I don't think we'll see Virtual Boy 2 or a HD Wii. Maybe +Motes that don't require a dongle

I don't know... with all of the hype about 3D now, maybe they'll dust off the Virtual Boy concept again. Nintendo is about due for another huge failure.

 

The DSi is only a year old and it came out 4 years after the DS*. Far too soon for anything other than a form factor tweak (like the XL).

 

I'd argue that DSi already was the form factor tweak, and that overall the DS technology is now twice as old as the GBA was when the DS was introduced. Also considering the handheld market in Japan, it seems as if the PSP is outselling the DSi regularly lately.

 

I agree - the DSi was a tweak, not a major revision. But I haven't seen anything that says the PSP is outselling the DS, anywhere.

 

I do think Nintendo is about due for a completely new handheld. They could do something so much more advanced now. I think tilt controls are a given, considering the success of the Wii and the iPhone as a gaming platform. I'd also expect to see a sleeker form factor - less of their typical plasticky toy-like design. Better graphics, bigger (or higher resolution) screens, the usual stuff. I think they should also add some sort of integration with the Wii, where you could control a Wii game using the handheld (like a WiiMote), but you'd also get additional game-related information/interaction on the handheld's screens. For example - you could be playing a version of Mario Kart, and the handheld would be used for the controller, but also as a webcam/voice chat device, so you could see and talk to people you were playing against. Or an RPG where the Wii was dedicated to the world's graphics, and all of your commands, inventory, and related stuff would happen on the handheld. Seems like a natural blending of the two systems to me (and was sort-of attempted with the Dreamcast).

 

What I'm not sure... is if they have one ready to show off yet. My guess is they got caught a bit flat-footed by the iPhone and were planning for a longer product cycle on the DSi. But maybe they'll have a teaser at E3 for it. I'd guess the media event is more geared towards improvements in the WiiMote as a preemptive strike against Sony's and MS's motion controller offerings, and some major software title pre-announcements. If there are any handheld announcements, I'd guess it would either be software-related, or a tweak to the DSi. Maybe they'll just add motion sensors to it, and call it the DSii.

I agree - the DSi was a tweak, not a major revision. But I haven't seen anything that says the PSP is outselling the DS, anywhere.

 

Here can you see pie charts for Japans hardware sales the last three weeks:

http://kotaku.com/5475874/japans-hardware-war-feeling-a-little-too-comfortable

 

The PSP currently doesn't outsell the DSi and the LL combined, but moves more than each on its own. I think before the introduction of the LL the PSP moved more units, also in 2009 overall.

I'd argue that DSi already was the form factor tweak, and that overall the DS technology is now twice as old as the GBA was when the DS was introduced. Also considering the handheld market in Japan, it seems as if the PSP is outselling the DSi regularly lately.

The DSi's processor is more powerful than the DS (in addition to the built in webcams and SD slot), so that put it as a new generation and not just a form factor change. Admittedly the DSi isn't cosmetically much different from the DSlite, but it's what's under the hood which counts.

 

I wasn't aware that the PSP had such a reasonable market share in Japan, although the PSP Go is an embarrassingly small slice.