Switch ultimately outselling Wii?

[Punisher5.0]

 

I think it's quite easy to say it will surpass GC numbers, and probably even N64 numbers also.

For sure a lot of potential here. I was surprised to see that the GC only sold about seven million more units than the WiiU. I've been seeing a lot of stuff on the internet about people seeing Switches in stock at local stores so atleast they are trying to get them out there.

[Rev]

For sure a lot of potential here. I was surprised to see that the GC only sold about seven million more units than the WiiU. I've been seeing a lot of stuff on the internet about people seeing Switches in stock at local stores so atleast they are Turing to get them out there.

Don't believe everything you read on the internet.

 

Lets do our own test.

 

Anyone reading this, report what you see in your local stores. How many switches you see at a particular store and if you go back and they still have in stock later.

 

In last week or so I've been to walmart(two), target, gamestop and best buy. And no Switches in stock.

[Mord]

In my case, I've seen a Switch at the closest walmart to me twice now since launch. The last time just yesterday. I usually get to the store around suppertime, so odds are that means it's all they had left from earlier in the day when they restocked shelves. I don't know if the local gamestop has stock or not since they usually keep new systems in the back room and I haven't explicitly asked them if they had any in stock. They have some empty display boxes next where the games are on display, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything.

 

I suspect both instances of me seeing a unit was on a Friday. I find it difficult to believe Walmart would only get a single unit in as a restock, and that unit would normally be sold by the following Monday, so they're definitely still selling quick.

[Rick Dangerous]

Sorry i'm a realist. I don't think it will outsell any of the Gameboys. The market for a handheld console has shrank incredibly so it will be selling more on its merits as a home console, against stiff competition from PS4 and XBone which are selling healthily right now and have strong 3rd party libraries and online offerings. I don't think it would be a commercial loss for Nintendo if it sold GC or N64 numbers, frankly I just don't see a console selling 100million again. Grandma has already played Wii bowling and has Netflix on her smart TV. I hope i'm wrong and Nintendo sells 150 million...But as I said i'm a realist. Just because it's hot now doesn't mean demand couldn't fall off a cliff at any time as happened with the Wii U.

Edited April 8, 2017 by travistouchdown

[Tanooki]

Oh I think the odds aren't there anymore of that. I don't quite get Nintendo though is why. Despite what the wikipedia shows in aggregate sales, Nintendo has before coupled only some systems into one pot like the GB+GBPocket+GB LIght+GB Color as all just 'Gameboy' to hit that magic 119M~ units sold.

 

Online people throw all the GBA and DS stuff together, but Nintendo doesn't, perhaps due to some failures to ignore. I remember them quietly talking about the pitiful sales of the DSiXL and GB Micro independently as they sold like crap in comparison.

 

The Switch has already outsold the GB MIcro so they're not at the worst, but second worst maybe? The GB MIcro sold 2.42M units when they stopped counting a decade ago now. The DSi did ok with 41M and DSiXL did just 13M units out of the 154M units of all DS units sold. It basically did less than 10% of the total DS sales.

 

Personally I can't see them selling less of the Switch than the DSi (41M units.) The system currently has a lot going for it so unless Nintendo and third parties both decide to screw it up and savage it with pulled releases, gimped junk, and bad overall behavior like the WiiU suffered it should be fine. Will it top the total GBA sales of 81M, good question, 50/50 maybe? I still can't at this rate see it blowing out the Wii or even the Gameboy-GBC line of numbers let alone the DS on the whole as that would be insane. 3DS currently overall every model (2DS included) sits at 65 1/2M as of January of 2016 and it's growing still, and I think that's achievable.

[Rev]

What was the Wii's lifespan? Around 7/8 years give or take? (Don't feel like looking it up)

 

 

Let's all meet back here in around 2023/2024 or so and see who was right.

[Rev]

My prediction of final Switch sales. Lets see if I was close in 5 to 7 years. Then Austin can roast me if my guess was way off.

 

 

Nintendo DS: 154 million

Gameboy: 118 million

Wii: 101 million

Switch: 90 million

Gameboy Advance: 81 million

Nintendo 3DS: 65 million

Nes: 61 million

Snes: 49 million

N64: 32 million

Gamecube: 21 million

Wii U: 13 million

 

Source: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/

[Tanooki]

Effectively according to the wikipedia for the US -- November 2006 (we got it first) - October 2011 (Japan October 2013) and that's only for the original Wii+Gamecube model.

 

The 2nd non-GC model (I have) was the Holiday Bundle (with New SMB) and later Family Bundle with both Wii Sports bundled in which ran from October 2011- November 2013.

 

They pulled that for that crappy stripped Wii Mini which was out November 2013 for the US, Canada and Europe only.

 

2013 is when the Wii died around the world otherwise as the old models were pulled and the Wii Mini never was sold there. I have no idea how long they sold the Mini but I think they canned it in the back half/end of 2014 because Nintendo got pissed off the Wii Mini was outselling the WiiU the start of that embarrassing train wreck being very obvious.

 

So I think in the end, all 3 models, as US was the first and last land of the Wii went from Nov 2006 until Mid/Late 2014 (ie: 7.5-8 years.)

 

Mind you games still were coming out at a trickle through 2015 that Nintendo and others would more or less acknowledge, and just last October 1 game for all of 2016 was Just Dance 2017.

 

About 10 games in 2014 and in 2015 Rodea and Skylanders did come out along with Just Dance and some under the radar Barbie game.

[Schizophretard]

Sorry i'm a realist. I don't think it will outsell any of the Gameboys. The market for a handheld console has shrank incredibly so it will be selling more on its merits as a home console...

 

From the Game Boy's launch in 1989 to the launch of the Game Boy Color in 1998 was 9 years and 6 months. In between that time the Game Boy sold 54.27 million consoles. From the 3DS's launch in 2011 to the launch of the Switch in 2017 was 6 years. In between that time the 3DS sold 65.30+ million consoles. So, if the time between the launch of the 3DS and Switch was shorter than the time between the launch of the Game Boy and Game Boy Color by 3 years and 6 months but the 3DS still sold over 11 million more consoles in that shorter time than the Game Boy then where is this incredible shrinkage of the market? There is none.

 

Granted, with going from the DS becoming the second best-selling console of all time(handheld or otherwise) to the sales of the 3DS is a shrinkage but that was the only time the market was that huge and the shrinkage from that to the 3DS is still a bigger market than the original Game Boy's. In other words, if the introduction of smart phones really has shrunk the handheld console market then it wouldn't just be bringing it down to the current sales of the 3DS but lower than the Game Boy's.

 

I think a better explanation between what happened between the huge success of the DS and introduction of smart phones didn't have much to do with handheld consoles but touch based tablet gaming. The DS wasn't just a traditional handheld console. It was also a tablet. That made it a hybrid of sorts because it has two types of gaming. It introduced touched based gaming to the masses and therefore got the people that already buy handheld consoles for traditional controls as well as the new audience that jumped on board for the first time for the touch controls. So, when smart phones were introduced did they take away those new touch based gamers since they are tablets too? Yes. However, a more important question to see if the market for handheld consoles is shrinking isn't just,"Did it take away the touched based gamers?" but,"Did it also take away the handheld console gamers that prefer traditional controls?" The sales of the 3DS shows that to be a clear no.

 

If you compare the sales of the 3DS to Nintendo's handhelds that weren't also tablets its sales are what has been the average. The Game Boy sold 64.42 million, the Game Boy Color sold 54.27 million, and the Game Boy Advance sold 81.51 million. That is an average of 66.73 million. The 3DS is currently at 65.30+ million. That is barely a difference. That is the average that Nintendo's handheld console market has consistently stayed at. That is because Nintendo has only lost the tablet touch based gamers but there is no shrinkage in their market of handheld console gamers that prefer traditional controls. If Nintendo lost them to smart phones too with the touch based gamers then the 3DS's sales would be way lower than the average.

 

My argument isn't that Nintendo is going to bring back all of these touched based gamers away from their phones to reach these kind of sales because the Switch has a touch screen. My argument is that it can get the handheld console gamers that prefer traditional controls that they have never lost because it is a handheld console with traditional controls and because there has been no incredibile shrinkage of these kind of gamers.

 

 

 

Anyway, I agree it will sell based on its merits as a home console but not only on those merits. It will sell based on its handheld console merits too. For the sake of argument, let's say that you are correct and based on these home console merits it at most sells as low as the Nintendo 64(32.93 million). So, 32.93 million people buy it for its console merits like playing it mostly docked if not always docked, uses the Pro Controller, etc. Let's also say that you are correct that Nintendo's handheld console market has shrunk incredibly. Like it shrank down to half of what it has been which half of the average is 33.37 million. So, if I grant you all of that but if I am also correct that it will also sell based on its handheld console merits, like people buying it to mostly use in portable or table top mode away from a TV, at the incredibly shrunken down level of 33.37 million then if you combine the sales of the people that buy it for its home console merits and handheld console merits then that is still 66.3 million sold. That is still at the handheld console average. Because of its hybrid nature it can sell as poor as the Nintendo 64 from those mostly buying it as a home console and even if those who will mostly buy it for it as a handheld console are half of the average than the handheld market has been then it could still reach the average that Nintendo handhelds sell. In other words, even if the handheld market has shrunk as much as half of what it was it also being sold based on its home console merits can make up the difference.

[BydoEmpire]

No way in heck the Switch will outsell the Wii. If it sells half as many I'd be surprised, although that's still a very healthy number. It simply doesn't have the mass appeal, and the market has continued to change since the Wii.

[Rev]

No way in heck the Switch will outsell the Wii. If it sells half as many I'd be surprised, although that's still a very healthy number. It simply doesn't have the mass appeal, and the market has continued to change since the Wii.

Kinda off topic: went to a flea market this weekend. Seen two different sellers with a boxed Wii. Both wanted 75ish. You would think with over 100 million consoles sold worldwide they would be cheaper. Ha!

 

Haven't look up recent ebay auctions for comparison. Maybe that's the going rate.

[BydoEmpire]

Kinda off topic: went to a flea market this weekend. Seen two different sellers with a boxed Wii. Both wanted 75ish. You would think with over 100 million consoles sold worldwide they would be cheaper. Ha!

 

Haven't look up recent ebay auctions for comparison. Maybe that's the going rate.

I see more than a few completed ebay listings for boxed Wii consoles around $50, some less some more...

[Tanooki]

You can get a complete Wii system of either (non-Mini) versions for $50 off ebay given it's in really good shape and that's loose (a parts console only can get $20-30 amazingly.) It will have the system, 1 wiimote(plus doesn't seem to matter), 1 nunchuk, then the power, video, and sensor bar parts with it so it's ready. It doesn't even need a game packed in for someone to snap it up.

 

I know this only because of those posts I'm sure some of you saw I made when I found one 3~weeks ago for $10 that was mostly complete (no wiimote+chuk, just a black classic controller pro.) I didn't like it lacking the missing parts and some scuffs (which I could and did buff out mostly), so I went shopping for a new/nearly new one. That's how I know what a loose one can get to the $50 price.

 

Boxed depends which one it is, but usually it's $75 and up. If you get a matching system, and one with extras such as the model2 versions that have the New SMB Wii+SMGalaxy1 soundtrack or the 2games on 1 disc of WiiSports/Sports Resort those can go upwards of around $100 shipped with a decent ease of selling within 30 days. Wii stuff is pretty particular on how high people will pay and for what, it's not all over the board.

 

Just because it sold over 100M+ units doesn't mean a lot of them aren't jacked up in some respect, nor does it mean a lot will care if it has GC ports or not as to what they'll pay for it either. The outlier is that horridly gimped Mini, that has its own price tier, mostly collectard based I'd think looking at completed sales since so few were produced only in some parts of the world.

[Mord]

I suspect both instances of me seeing a unit was on a Friday. I find it difficult to believe Walmart would only get a single unit in as a restock, and that unit would normally be sold by the following Monday, so they're definitely still selling quick.

 

Just to belatedly confirm, that single Switch unit I saw last Friday was gone by the time I returned on Monday.

[Rick Dangerous]

Just to belatedly confirm, that single Switch unit I saw last Friday was gone by the time I returned on Monday.

Well that settles it. Because that single unit sold, and due to other market indicators from the past few weeks, I estimate that the switch will sell 200-300 million consoles, minimum.

[AtariLeaf]

I've yet to see a Switch locally but honestly, I'm not looking for one but when I'm in a Best Buy or Walmart I curiously will look to see what's there and although I've seen extra controllers and those amiibo figures, I've yet to see an actual Switch.

[NinjaWarrior]

So I really hate Fanboys like Nintendo, They think the Switch is the 2nd coming of Jesus

 

Get over it, Might sell good in 6 months, We don't know if it keeps up in 2018

[Austin]

So I really hate Fanboys like Nintendo, They think the Switch is the 2nd coming of Jesus

 

Get over it, Might sell good in 6 months, We don't know if it keeps up in 2018

 

Nintendo's a Fanboy? Do tell more.

[NinjaWarrior]

Lol, I really need to proof read before I press Post

 

I mean Fanboys on Facebook Group only talking Nintendo

[Mord]

Well that settles it. Because that single unit sold, and due to other market indicators from the past few weeks, I estimate that the switch will sell 200-300 million consoles, minimum.

 

.... I'm not exactly sure where you'd try to assume anyone is saying that. My point is just that Switches are being restocked, and they're still selling off the shelves. I also pointed out the odds that Walmart put a single Switch out on the shelf as a restock is pretty much unlikely, and that that single switch I saw was just the last one remaining by Suppertime when I went to Walmart.

[Austin]

 

.... I'm not exactly sure where you'd try to assume anyone is saying that. My point is just that Switches are being restocked, and they're still selling off the shelves. I also pointed out the odds that Walmart put a single Switch out on the shelf as a restock is pretty much unlikely, and that that single switch I saw was just the last one remaining by Suppertime when I went to Walmart.

 

He was just joking, man.

[Tanooki]

Lol, I really need to proof read before I press Post

 

I mean Fanboys on Facebook Group only talking Nintendo

And that's somehow different than the die hard fanboy tools for Sony and MS? Not really. If someone is happy with their purchase, so be it. Enjoy with them or go elsewhere to avoid it. I on't think popping in here to dump on it will go anywhere either.

[bojay1997]

So I really hate Fanboys like Nintendo, They think the Switch is the 2nd coming of Jesus

 

Get over it, Might sell good in 6 months, We don't know if it keeps up in 2018

I take a different approach. I hope all of the consoles do well. I agree that there is a bit of overhype being attached to the initial sales of the Switch, but there is no denying that if you love Nintendo games, it's a great way to play them. If you're hoping that it's going to be your single console or a total replacement for PC and PS4/Xbox One gaming, you are going to be disappointed as there is still a significant performance lag in the Switch hardware. Still, it's nice to see at least some tepid 3rd party support and I hope it leads to more niche titles being released that were previously only considered for handhelds like the 3DS or Vita.

[Tickled_Pink]

Well, I originally said it would bomb. Criticised the price but then I got interested in it because of the cost of the devkit.

 

 

 

Never ask me to predict console sales again, huh?

 

 

The Switch is now officially Nintendo's fastest selling console of all time! They shifted almost a million in March.

 

http://www.techradar.com/news/the-switch-is-officially-nintendos-fastest-selling-console-ever?utm_content=buffer84e48&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=buffer-trfb

[Tanooki]

Wow that's not bad to get that many out in the US alone, they had planned 2M globally before midnight hit for 4/1/17 and I bet they got to where they wanted to. The fact they keep popping up in stores is a good sign too, as is the fact they vanish fast as it can't all be scalper filth hoarding them to rip off honest consumers.