Switch ultimately outselling Wii?

[Rev]

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2017-05-02-nintendo-now-believes-switch-can-reach-wii-sales-levels

 

 

Nintendo thinks they can reach wii levels with switch??? What's this?

[godslabrat]

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2017-05-02-nintendo-now-believes-switch-can-reach-wii-sales-levels

 

 

Nintendo thinks they can reach wii levels with switch??? What's this?

It's definitely optimistic, even naive, but consider the reasoning:

 

"...we think there will be households that feel as though one is not really enough."

 

They're using portable logic, where people buy multiples of the console for pther household members, or even themselves. Considering the Switch has a strong portable side, that isn't terrible logic. There are a whole bunch of reasons I don't think it'll happen, but it's not a completely unfounded ambition.

[Tanooki]

Actually I'd buy that argument completely, the one about a single Switch being enough. Definitely not in a grossly large amount of places, but as the price drops with time, and with variants (like we said, maybe a handheld only one without the docking parts/cables) it would get into a realm where you have families who have multiple $200(when newly retailed) 3DS handhelds around, or anything else from them or other companies. It's portable logic, it's a portable system, so why not?

 

Trumping the Wii, that's a tall glass of hopefulness I doubt until I see some farther out projections based on fact, not just trends over about 2 months as that's nothing.

 

They do have a very strong point, the faster they can close on 10M units shipped to actual retail to have been bought or been bought and are in use already is huge. A number that big, and them swinging for it within their fiscal year ending 3/31/18 is crazy good if they hit it. That would instill a heap of confidence back into them to be a viable gaming company the WiiU utterly destroyed. This would allow developers to feel far more at ease and confident in releasing product as they know by numbers alone they'll be able to move goodly amounts of their games making profit far less questionable. Look how bad the WiiU sold overall month to month for its whole life outside of the first month or two it existed, awful. It ran people off who were on the fence, and those who were on board mostly ran for it into year 2 because they knew the base was so piddly they couldn't get the money out of bothering with it. Once they hit 10M+ units they'll nearly have crushed 5 years of laughable WiiU sales on the whole which is a real turn around.

[Rev]

It's definitely optimistic, even naive, but consider the reasoning:

 

"...we think there will be households that feel as though one is not really enough."

 

They're using portable logic, where people buy multiples of the console for pther household members, or even themselves. Considering the Switch has a strong portable side, that isn't terrible logic. There are a whole bunch of reasons I don't think it'll happen, but it's not a completely unfounded ambition.

As long as they keep releasing some good retail games, I could see me getting a second one by next year. Especially if they release a new Metroid.

[Punisher5.0]

You can count me into the households with two. Nintendo has a great product and I think the Switch will be successful for them.

[omegadot]

If I were to buy one for my children it better have either some serious gorilla glass screen or a clamshell. That screen is like fine china. I absolutely do not trust kids with it at the current price point.

[Tanooki]

I think you could sorta gorilla glass it. There's a pack (of 2) up on amazon that is tempered glass that you can pop into place over the original plastic flimsy lens over the screen now. I've heard it can take a significant pounding and not get a mark on it.

[Video]

Its the best of both worlds. Handheld and portable. I could see it doing extremely well, as good as the Wii is a bit out there though. Still, its perfect for people like me who always looks for TV options for handhelds and vice versa (nomad, super gameboy, master gear for gamegear, gbatv, gameboy player, psp3k video cable, vita + ps3. I'm sure there's a few more I got)

[Punisher5.0]

Its the best of both worlds. Handheld and portable. I could see it doing extremely well, as good as the Wii is a bit out there though. Still, its perfect for people like me who always looks for TV options for handhelds and vice versa (nomad, super gameboy, master gear for gamegear, gbatv, gameboy player, psp3k video cable, vita + ps3. I'm sure there's a few more I got)

Agreed. It's really nice having the freedom with the Switch. It's become the system of choice for our house since we got one on launch day.

[Mord]

Still don't have a switch myself yet - almost had one a few weeks ago but the supply ran out by payday. Then the pay ran out before they stocked up again.

 

Realistically it's going to be early-mid fall before I'll likely have one, but I've already started the prebuying of games/accessories for it (Got Zelda and 3 of the 4 amiibos for the game so far. Might get the last one this week.)

 

I suspect the internet connection options for the Switch are wi-fi only like pretty much all of Nintendo's consoles? I'm a lazy bastard with respect to that. I'd prefer to just plug in a cable. ^^

[Punisher5.0]

Still don't have a switch myself yet - almost had one a few weeks ago but the supply ran out by payday. Then the pay ran out before they stocked up again.

 

Realistically it's going to be early-mid fall before I'll likely have one, but I've already started the prebuying of games/accessories for it (Got Zelda and 3 of the 4 amiibos for the game so far. Might get the last one this week.)

 

I suspect the internet connection options for the Switch are wi-fi only like pretty much all of Nintendo's consoles? I'm a lazy bastard with respect to that. I'd prefer to just plug in a cable. ^^

It does support a cable connection to the dock.

[Mord]

It does support a cable connection to the dock.

 

That works for me then!

[Rev]

http://bgr.com/2017/05/26/nintendo-switch-sales-numbers-us-gamestop-earnings/

[Tanooki]

Wow yeah no kidding that one little data point says volumes so far about the state of the Nintendo Switch. You have your usual online faux analysts and media or fanboy trolls who spout off garbage about the system trying to start another doom and gloom train, but they you see they're a minority of people who are intentionally ignored or are invisible to the larger masses which is a good thing. Given how well the Wii did a decade ago and in the same time, to have the Switch pull that number says a lot. Back then people dumped on Wii some (waggle this and SD that) but the trolls got ignored then too and it was a pain to get one of them not just that first Christmas but the second one too. Maybe the Switch will be a nightmare to find after/around Black Friday this year, maybe not...who knows, but right now that's impressive.

[Rev]

I think at the one year anniversary of the Switch will be very telling as to trying to gauge the final sales numbers. But of course its not an exact science. For all we know sales could drop off a cliff. Bit right now they are looking good.

Edited May 26, 2017 by Rev

[Rev]

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/26/nintendo-switch-monster-hunter-xx-stock-rally.html

 

Stocks are good. But can and will drop, right? :-)

[Tanooki]

Yeah they'll dip it's normal to see a bunch of investors ride the wave of some good news to then get cool on things and sell before they fall (causing them to fall) until the next hit of Nintendo love comes once more to raise it up yet again.

 

1 year in would be a solid indicator, and 2 years in would be quite telling. Some systems do alright for a little then fumble it. Gamecube early on did nicely in pacing, but around 3 years in some third party games dried up as did other stuff and then xbox ultimately passed it by a hair supposedly putting it into 3rd though really there were equally low failures against the PS2 numbers. Wii kind of did the same sort of, it never until it really was time ever did poorly, but after the first 3 years or so it dropped off pretty well.

[Rev]

http://d3r76jz8za3nz.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Nintendo-sales.jpg

 

 

Interesting sales chart.

[Rev]

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-25/best-buy-surges-after-nintendo-switch-console-helps-boost-sales

 

 

Switch is boosting Best Buy overall earnings? Even with very few retail games available. Weird.

 

I've still not seen ONE Switch since launch in any stores I go to. Which is fairly often and I always look.

Edited May 27, 2017 by Rev

[Rev]

http://nintendotoday.com/source-nintendo-increasing-switch-production-again/

 

A rumor (unconfirmed source) increase in Switch production again.

[DracIsBack]

Wii kind of did the same sort of, it never until it really was time ever did poorly, but after the first 3 years or so it dropped off pretty well.

 

It's peak was the third year, but it was still moving solid numbers like the first couple of years until about year six. Startling when you stack the Wii U lifetimes against the original Wii though. The first Wii sold more units in each of four consecutive years than Wii U did over its entire time on the market.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/349078/nintendo-wii-and-wii-u-console-sales/

[Bill Loguidice]

It's clear the Switch is doing well and is destined to keep doing well, but it reaching Wii levels of sales at 100 million+ is still too big of a leap to take at this early point, especially considering how part of the Wii's success was directly attributable to it being a fad for a time that crossed over traditional videogame buyer demographics. In just over 10 years on the market before being discontinued, the PS3 sold around 85 million units. The Xbox 360 sold around the same amount in the same amount of time before it was discontinued.

 

With the PS4 at 60 million+ right now and the Xbox One at 30 million+, and both selling at brisker paces than their predecessors (especially the PS4), there's nevertheless still a long way to go from even reaching the 85+ million mark, although that's only after a little over 3 years on the market. A lot can happen on the way to that milestone, although I do agree that the incremental upgrade strategy should help keep the sales flowing, likely moreso than in previous single platform target generations. Anyway, the point is, while I can reasonably see one or more (or all) of these consoles breaking the 100 million sold barrier, there does reach a point (usually around 5 or so years in) where sales start to slow, sometimes dramatically. It remains to be seen if the incremental upgrade process will indeed reverse that, or simply slow it. The next test will be the release of Xbox One Scorpio later this year.

[Rev]

http://nintendotoday.com/japanese-gamers-are-still-lining-up-to-get-a-switch/

 

Is people lining up this time of year normal for a system? Iphone yes...but don't recall for a system. Does this jog anyone's memory.

[Mord]

Not sure if it really matters about time of year for a lineup over a popular item with shortage issues. If it's not normal for a console it might be because consoles more often launch in the fall rather spring?

 

Should say something if you have people lining up that much for a console 3 months after the initial launch. I can only assume the stores didn't tell the people lining up how many units they had available though. A lot of those people would have been able to just go off and do something productive with their day if they had.

[SuperCool]

Switch owner here: So far, really like the system. Hardware wise, this thing is a slam dunk...huge improvement over the Wii U (which I own and like as well).

 

I think the biggest determining factor as to whether it is a long term success will be if the system can garner some genuine third party support, beyond a few e-games and rehashes of older stuff (like Ultra Street Fighter II, which I do enjoy, by the way). Yes, there are a handful coming down the pipe (Skyrim, NBA 2K18, etc), but you'd think there would be more announcements coming sooner than later, given the big system sales numbers thus far.