Just some theorycrafting on an updated rarity guide

[Mockduck]

I like AtariAge's rarity guide just fine, so this should be seen as more theorycrafting than criticism.

 

It seems likely that the current rarity guide doesn't reflect the 2018 rarity of certain games. I imagine a ton of work went into it back in the day, but things that were rare then probably aren't so much now (rarity caused people to dig out their carts, sell them, flood the market, etc.) while more common games then may have had their supply dry up, making them more rare nowadays.

 

I have been thinking about it, and have come up with an idea that seems interesting in theory, and might allow for a more fluid and updatable rarity guide based on the Atari community's input. Here's the thought:

 

1. There would be an online spreadsheet or survey-style input page where people would mark which games they owned, and also be able to mark things like whether they have instructions, boxes, whether it is sealed, etc.

 

2. After a statistically-significant number of people provided their input, the rarity guide could be created. As people input their own collections and data over time, it would not only become more accurate, but the rarity of a game could be adjusted using an algorithm.

 

3. Eventually, you'd end up with something like:

 

Out of 1000 people:

 

998 have a Combat cart.

500 have a Lost Luggage cart

100 have a Chase the Chuck Wagon cart

5 have a MagiCard

 

And you'd get a list of all games in the database. You could then take the numbers and turn it into a rarity guide along the lines of:

 

1 - More than 90% of respondents own

2 - More than 80% of respondents own

3 - More than 70% of respondents own

4 - More than 60% of respondents own

5 - More than 50% of respondents own

6 - More than 40% of respondents own

7 - More than 30% of respondents own

8 - More than 20% of respondents own

9 - More than 10% of respondents own

10 - Fewer than 10% of respondents own

 

You could of course also just have a list of raw numbers of carts owned in the database, and be able to sort it spreadsheet-style.

 

So, as the rarity of MagiCard (theoretically) caused an additional 100 games to enter the channel through the laws of supply and demand, you'd be able to adjust its rarity number in a more data-driven way.

 

Thoughts?

 

(I know, I know: We don't actually need this. Just thinking out loud.)

[Schitti]

hmm, where to start with an answer ...
i like your enthusiasm and the intent behind your thoughts in the beginning , but there are certainly many more reasons that I have not enumerated that speak against such a project.

1. The Rating would only be an overview of the members on this website. The unreported number of offline collectors is too big.

2. Every collector who joins, would mark for example, a "Combat" and a "Lost Luggage", but where does he list the other ten Combat copies that a big collector still has at home.

3. What about the variations? for Example: Combat 1977, Combat 1978, Combat 1979

4. Not every collector recognizes the difference between PAL and NTSC or SECAM. It does not matter to some collectors. The main thing is, that the title is in the collection.

5. Especially the big collectors have little interest in telling everyone what's in their collection. One could only evaluate the data anonymously.

6. In rare games you could possibly derive a tendency, but not in the common titles.

7. For tactical reasons, it is not always advisable to mark a rare game, because that reduces the rarity level. (Sales intentions)

8. and

9. so

10. on ...

11. That would be a lot of work (and requires a complete Database)

The only option you have, if you know several long-term collectors who can call their own a very large collection (maybe range far beyond 1000+), or collectors with special collection areas (maybe v-carts section), then you have a chance to do something.
A collection and experience make this possible. Trust me, I know what I'm talking about

I'm curious about the point ov view of others here in the forum.

[Rom Hunter]

Rarity is subjective.

[Schitti]

Disagree

 

Subjective is the point of view of an individual, influenced by his personal preferences.

 

Rarity is not subjective, in marked contrast to value and shape.

 

A rare cart IS a rare cart.

 

or should i say "a Holy Grale" is "a Holy Grale", until proven otherwise.

 

[Rom Hunter]

What I mean is: rarity (and its connected 'value') is constantly changing and depends on a LOT of factors (knowledge being one of them).

It's not a fixed thing and it will never be.

Also, what's valuable for one collector isn't automatically valuable in the eyes of another collector, so in that sense it's subjective.

PAL carts and V-cases are a good example.

Edited June 28, 2018 by Rom Hunter

[Schitti]

Yes, that's how I can confirm that.

It will ever be a difficult Topic.

It just depends on too many factors than can't be explained in one sentence.

[Mockduck]

Thanks for the feedback, it's all accurate. Couple of comments on:

 

1. True, but any rarity guide is going to be subjective to some extent.

 

2. You are right, you'd have to allow for marking multiple copies of a game.

 

3. Same with variations.

 

 

hmm, where to start with an answer ...
i like your enthusiasm and the intent behind your thoughts in the beginning , but there are certainly many more reasons that I have not enumerated that speak against such a project.

1. The Rating would only be an overview of the members on this website. The unreported number of offline collectors is too big.

 

2. Every collector who joins, would mark for example, a "Combat" and a "Lost Luggage", but where does he list the other ten Combat copies that a big collector still has at home.

3. What about the variations? for Example: Combat 1977, Combat 1978, Combat 1979

4. Not every collector recognizes the difference between PAL and NTSC or SECAM. It does not matter to some collectors. The main thing is, that the title is in the collection.

5. Especially the big collectors have little interest in telling everyone what's in their collection. One could only evaluate the data anonymously.

6. In rare games you could possibly derive a tendency, but not in the common titles.

7. For tactical reasons, it is not always advisable to mark a rare game, because that reduces the rarity level. (Sales intentions)

8. and

9. so

10. on ...

11. That would be a lot of work (and requires a complete Database)

The only option you have, if you know several long-term collectors who can call their own a very large collection (maybe range far beyond 1000+), or collectors with special collection areas (maybe v-carts section), then you have a chance to do something.
A collection and experience make this possible. Trust me, I know what I'm talking about

I'm curious about the point ov view of others here in the forum.

 

[NaNoNoiZe]

i recovered my old atari from my parents and found a concorde video spelcassette with a little label saying megamania on it.

i googled megamania and i remember playing it.

i couldnt confirm it is working.

i have not found the powersupply to the console.

if it works and its megamania on it it could be a totally new discovery.

what if it is a holy grail with only 1 out there?

[+thanatos]

 

i recovered my old atari from my parents and found a concorde video spelcassette with a little label saying megamania on it.

i googled megamania and i remember playing it.

i couldnt confirm it is working.

i have not found the powersupply to the console.

if it works and its megamania on it it could be a totally new discovery.

what if it is a holy grail with only 1 out there?

 

 

How many more threads are you going to spam this to?