Let's Say Next Generation, A Console Manufacturer Is Going To Get Out Of The Console Market. Who's It Going To Be?

[Magmavision2000]

I'd say It would be Microsoft since they probably make more money licensing Windows than they do selling Xbox's.

[+wongojack]

Yes, I'm sure they do make more money licensing Windows . . . and Office . . . and SQL, but their company strategy is to empower people and drive revenue into their cloud infrastructure.  XBox as a cross-platform service helps them with that strategy, so I don't see them walking away from all of the Xbox Live customers they have who are exclusive console users.

 

You're right about one thing - Microsoft has other revenue they can fall back on.  Nintendo on the other hand is like 100% gaming.  Seems to me like they would be the first to get out of manufacturing their own consoles, but that is also close to the core of what they do.

[Tanooki]

Nintendo though has stated year after year, decade, president to the next they'd NEVER publish their games on another console or dedicated hardware format.  They were blunt about it saying they'd just stop making games entirely if they got their hardware shoved out and I'd believe it.  I could see them still wiggle that with their iOS/Android stuff, as it works for them without an impact, and well flatly because of Pokemon.  Pokemon alone is a multi-billion dollar insane thing between the merch, amusement parks, TCG, etc on top of games.  They've got lots to fall back into.

[Flojomojo]

I'm going to take the safe bet and say it's likely to be one of the little guys using old brand names from the 1970s. 

[Steven Pendleton]

I'm guessing Ouya doesn't count since 9th gen already started. In that case, good bye, Polymega.

[Flojomojo]

OUYA's already gone, @Steven Pendleton. 

[Steven Pendleton]

1 minute ago, Flojomojo said:

OUYA's already gone, @Steven Pendleton. 

Which is why it doesn't count since we are talking about 10th gen! I don't see Polymega sticking around for long at all. I doubt many people want to pay almost $400 for a box that runs Kega Fusion + more money for the other system add-on thingies. At least the Retron 5 is cheap.

[Austin]

4 hours ago, Magmavision2000 said:

I'd say It would be Microsoft since they probably make more money licensing Windows than they do selling Xbox's.

Highly unlikely. They make bank from just Xbox Live Gold alone, and now they're expanding that with Game Pass. Digital game sales on their Xbox platforms likely bring in big numbers too. Too big for them to drop on a dime.

 

Personally, I don't see any of the "Big Three" going away anytime soon.

Edited March 4, 2020 by Austin

[spacecadet]

I mean, Microsoft has basically already conceded and has stated that consoles are not their focus going forward. Cloud gaming is. The Xbox Series X is not even really a console, it's just one of the many ways you'll have to play Xbox games, including the PC and xCloud. You don't need an actual Xbox. They've said that they don't see Sony and Nintendo as their competitors in this upcoming generation; they see Google and Amazon as their competitors.

 

They may have been trying to spin that as saying they're looking forward while everybody else looks backward, but it comes off to me like they're exiting the traditional console market and leaving it to Sony and Nintendo.

[Punisher5.0]

I could see MS bow out if they cant keep up with Nintendo and Sony again. It would be really embarrassing to them if the Switch continues to outsell the Xbox line after the Series X debuts.

[Steven Pendleton]

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if Xbox stops getting released in Japan altogether. When your console consistently fails to sell 50 units nationwide every week, it's time to give up.

 

https://www.gematsu.com/2020/02/famitsu-sales-2-17-20-2-23-20

 

It used to break 50 units (lol), but not anymore...

Edited March 4, 2020 by Steven Pendleton

[Magmavision2000]

2 minutes ago, Steven Pendleton said:

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if Xbox stops getting released in Japan altogether. When your console consistently fails to sell 50 units nationwide every week, it's time to give up.

 

https://www.gematsu.com/2020/02/famitsu-sales-2-17-20-2-23-20

 

It used to break 50 units (lol), but not anymore...

Jesus... I thought they were doing better there after they started using Bill Gates in their ads.

 

 

[Steven Pendleton]

2 minutes ago, Magmavision2000 said:

Jesus... I thought they were doing better there after they started using Bill Gates in their ads.

 

 

lol nope. Total failure. Tommy and I actually talked about it a little bit over in his thread, if you want to go look through that.

 

The sales for Xbox here really fluctuate oddly if you go look at the numbers for the past 6 months or so. Some weeks they sell 500 or more, sometimes they sell less than 50... I'm really not sure what to make of it. Everything is multiplatform now except for increasingly rare exclusives. Maybe they are having liquidation sales. The thing is that most stores here don't even stock any Xbox stuff at all, so it's actually hard to find here outside of really big stores. Honestly, with those sales numbers, it's completely understandable that they wouldn't stock Xbox considering they can use that space to display things that actually sell.

[+wongojack]

Here's a good article that breaks down the gaming strategy for 5 of the big tech giants (Nintendo and Sony are customers of these companies): https://www.protocol.com/tech-gaming-amazon-facebook-microsoft

 

And here is the Forbes article you probably saw that references the first article.  This is one where the comment about Sony and Nintendo not being Microsoft's competitors comes out: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidthier/2020/02/05/why-microsoft-doesnt-think-sony-and-playstation-are-the-real-competition-for-xbox/#12f76a9d4bad

 

The comment about exclusives is such a broken record at this point.  Microsoft did not care about XBox console exclusives.  They could have had plenty of exclusives if they wanted them, but they have a different strategy that lets them welcome other customers who don't care.  Gaming across Windows and Xbox is already an amazing reality and GamePass just makes it even better.  Not to mention the fact that it doesn't really hurt MS if you are playing games on Steam as most people use Steam in Windows.  Heck, Steam is probably using MS Azure for some of their services anway.

 

Also, Microsoft doesn't fight other companies on their home field.  Tried to sell a music player - dropped out; Tried to sell a phone - dropped out; They know they can't win a console war in Japan . . . come on.

 

I think what will happen is that gaming will just continue to expand.  There will be room for the traditional device that plugs into your TV that plays games that you buy from a few companies, but there is always a ceiling to how many customers are interested in that experience, and that is no longer the place where most of the money will be made.  Instead Microsoft is making XBox Live a service that can be accessed from whatever device you have that can run it.  That gives them access to MANY more customers than just a living room console.   That being said, why would they walk away from the living room?  They won't.

[zzip]

Microsoft-   They seem more interested in cloud services and game services than they do about Xbox console hardware.   They already got rid of most of their console exclusives, bringing them to Windows,  they cancelled other games in process.  They got outsold by Playstation more than 2:1 this generation, and I think outsold by Switch too.   Their heart doesn't really seem to be in console hardware anymore

[0078265317]

Nobody is going anywhere anytime soon.

[Austin]

9 hours ago, zzip said:

Microsoft-   They seem more interested in cloud services and game services than they do about Xbox console hardware.   They already got rid of most of their console exclusives, bringing them to Windows,  they cancelled other games in process.  They got outsold by Playstation more than 2:1 this generation, and I think outsold by Switch too.   Their heart doesn't really seem to be in console hardware anymore

Their heart is absolutely in the console hardware market. They've improved the Xbox One hardware with redesigns, they've put a great amount of effort into making previous generation games playable on current hardware, they've given users good value with some of their new services (Game Pass), and they've given more hardcore modern gamers a much more powerful console in the form of the Xbox One X. They are also likely to be releasing multiple versions of their upcoming hardware (which we will likely hear more about at E3) and it's already been stated that next-gen games, at least initially, will work across all Xbox One models. They won't be going anywhere in this space anytime soon.

 

The Xbox One wasn't the runaway success that the PS4 was, but even at a 2:1 sales ratio, we're still looking at close to 50 million units sold worldwide. That's a pretty healthy number and there's still a lot of money to be made in the Xbox ecosystem. Despite the negativity here, all that's been shown in this generation is that gaming is so large that the market can handle three big companies on the playing field, and all of them can do well. The Xbox One isn't anything like the Sega Saturn's third place in the '90s, and it's not even anywhere close to as low as the Wii U or Game Cube's sale numbers. While it has a long way to go to beat the Xbox 360's 80-something million units, it's far outperformed both the original Xbox and the Nintendo 64. Perspective goes a long way in conversations like these.

 

I don't see Microsoft's branching out as a goodbye to console gaming. I see it as a smart business decision, putting their eggs in many baskets. Their consoles will continue to do well, assuming they don't pull any similar nonsense like they did at E3 2013. Sony is also beginning to branch out as well. It was talked about in January that some of their first-party stuff will be coming to PC. They already have the PS Now cloud gaming service that can be accessed on PC as well.

[Steven Pendleton]

10 minutes ago, Austin said:

Their heart is absolutely in the console hardware market. They've improved the Xbox One hardware with redesigns, they've put a great amount of effort into making previous generation games playable on current hardware, they've given users good value with some of their new services (Game Pass), and they've given more hardcore modern gamers a much more powerful console in the form of the Xbox One X. They are also likely to be releasing multiple versions of their upcoming hardware (which we will likely hear more about at E3) and it's already been stated that next-gen games, at least initially, will work across all Xbox One models. They won't be going anywhere in this space anytime soon.

 

The Xbox One wasn't the runaway success that the PS4 was, but even at a 2:1 sales ratio, we're still looking at close to 50 million units sold worldwide. That's a pretty healthy number and there's still a lot of money to be made in the Xbox ecosystem. Despite the negativity here, all that's been shown in this generation is that gaming is so large that the market can handle three big companies on the playing field, and all of them can do well. The Xbox One isn't anything like the Sega Saturn's third place in the '90s, and it's not even anywhere close to as low as the Wii U or Game Cube's sale numbers. While it has a long way to go to beat the Xbox 360's 80-something million units, it's far outperformed both the original Xbox and the Nintendo 64. Perspective goes a long way in conversations like these.

 

I don't see Microsoft's branching out as a goodbye to console gaming. I see it as a smart business decision, putting their eggs in many baskets. Their consoles will continue to do well, assuming they don't pull any similar nonsense like they did at E3 2013. Sony is also beginning to branch out as well. It was talked about in January that some of their first-party stuff will be coming to PC. They already have the PS Now cloud gaming service that can be accessed on PC as well.

I agree with all of this. Nintendo, Microsoft, and Sony are not going anywhere, and if someone does exit, it will, realistically, be one of the smaller manufacturers. We don't know how well the new Atari VCS, Amico (yes, I'm sorry for mentioning it at all, since people seem to be offended by its very existence, but it is relevant in this discussion, so I must mention it), Polymega, or Playdate will perform, although at this rate I doubt the Polymega will go very far as it has passed its newest release date yet again with no word from the company.

 

I don't intentionally wish for any of these smaller guys to fail, but their continued existences are most likely less stable than Nintendo's, Sony's, and Microsoft's, and if anyone stops making hardware, it will be the smaller companies. Tectoy is also probably not going anywhere, as they seem to still have great success selling officially licensed Master System and Mega Drive systems (though I think these are emulation-based SOC systems now, like the Nintendo/Sega/PC Engine mini consoles) in their home market (Brazil), despite the presence of Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo.

[Punisher5.0]

6 hours ago, Austin said:

Their heart is absolutely in the console hardware market. They've improved the Xbox One hardware with redesigns, they've put a great amount of effort into making previous generation games playable on current hardware, they've given users good value with some of their new services (Game Pass), and they've given more hardcore modern gamers a much more powerful console in the form of the Xbox One X. They are also likely to be releasing multiple versions of their upcoming hardware (which we will likely hear more about at E3) and it's already been stated that next-gen games, at least initially, will work across all Xbox One models. They won't be going anywhere in this space anytime soon.

 

The Xbox One wasn't the runaway success that the PS4 was, but even at a 2:1 sales ratio, we're still looking at close to 50 million units sold worldwide. That's a pretty healthy number and there's still a lot of money to be made in the Xbox ecosystem. Despite the negativity here, all that's been shown in this generation is that gaming is so large that the market can handle three big companies on the playing field, and all of them can do well. The Xbox One isn't anything like the Sega Saturn's third place in the '90s, and it's not even anywhere close to as low as the Wii U or Game Cube's sale numbers. While it has a long way to go to beat the Xbox 360's 80-something million units, it's far outperformed both the original Xbox and the Nintendo 64. Perspective goes a long way in conversations like these.

 

I don't see Microsoft's branching out as a goodbye to console gaming. I see it as a smart business decision, putting their eggs in many baskets. Their consoles will continue to do well, assuming they don't pull any similar nonsense like they did at E3 2013. Sony is also beginning to branch out as well. It was talked about in January that some of their first-party stuff will be coming to PC. They already have the PS Now cloud gaming service that can be accessed on PC as well.

You make a lot of good points. One argument Id make though is on sales. They have three Xbones now to extend the generations life, where as the old systems had what they had so its not fair to compare that way. If you divide that 50 million my three then things dont look nearly as good.

[Austin]

1 hour ago, Punisher5.0 said:

You make a lot of good points. One argument Id make though is on sales. They have three Xbones now to extend the generations life, where as the old systems had what they had so its not fair to compare that way. If you divide that 50 million my three then things dont look nearly as good.

It's totally fair to compare that way. This isn't the first generation to feature multiple console revisions. The PS3 has three different mainline revisions. The Genesis/Megadrive had three core models. The SNES had two. The NES had two. Don't even get me started on the VCS. The list goes on.

 

For those that forgot, in the current generation, Sony has three versions of the PS4. Nintendo's Switch has only been out for three years and there's already a second ("Lite") version. It can be expected there will be a third in the future. You can't simply single out one company without pointing that same finger at another.

 

To flip your "there are three Xbones now to extend the generation's life.." thing on its head:

 

Some dude: "Hey, the PS4 sold 100 million units, cool!"

Some other dude: "Bruh, it's really not that impressive. They have three different models. It's not fair to the Switch. That only has two."

 

Yeah, that actually sounds pretty dumb now that I've typed it out.

 

If we want to look at the "expanded/more capable console refresh" idea, that isn't anything new either. The PC Engine line ended up having the Super Grafx, then PC Engine DUO. The Genesis ended up having its all-in one CDX unit. The Nintendo 64 didn't have a major all-in-one refresh, but the Expansion Pak certainly drove further interest and expanded the system's capabilities.

 

The point of this is that the comparison does work. Units sold are units sold, and the health of the Xbox ecosystem is much more sound than some people are willing to admit.

Edited March 5, 2020 by Austin

[Punisher5.0]

There is obviously a big difference between the two. The Xbone has new more powerful updated hardware and the others are just smaller with the same exact abilities as before.

[Serguei2]

Why would we pay $300 today for a console when for the same price, you get a decent computer.

 

If Microsoft lefts video game market and Sony, (I heard PS5 would be the last console) what would we have at the end of the line? Nintendo and its famous games.

[zzip]

37 minutes ago, Serguei2 said:

Why would we pay $300 today for a console when for the same price, you get a decent computer.

 

except you can't.   I spent something like $800 last year updating my PC to more modern standards,  but guess what?  It doesn't quite match the known specs of the PS5, which will most likely sell for less.

 

Now these are just upgrades, and I'm a bargain shopper, I wait for deals.   If I had to build a full computer including Windows license, keyboard, mouse, case, power supply, I'd be looking closer to $1,000

[Flojomojo]

And that computer would be able to do a lot more, and software would be cheaper. This debate has been going on for decades, it won't be settled here. 
 

Xbox is a nice cheap(ish) single-purpose computer. General purpose PCs are great as well. It's possible to have one of each. 

[zzip]

7 minutes ago, Flojomojo said:

And that computer would be able to do a lot more,

Yes true.  I just take issue with people who claim that if you spend less money on a PC, you will end up with better-specced gaming system than a console for the same price. 

If you want a gaming system that isn't already obsolete and will last more than a year or two, you will be spending most of that $300 on just the video card.

8 minutes ago, Flojomojo said:

and software would be cheaper

No, that's a myth too.   I check the PS4 store, GoG and Steam for the best deals on games and generally find they have the same retail prices and same sale prices.   The only difference is they may not run the same sales at the same time.