Jump to content
IGNORED

Can a computer built around Superbowl XV predict Superbowl LVII???


Switch1995

Recommended Posts

I needed a brain-break from studying GPL and ASSM, so I put together this little program for fun.  I'm going to put $100 on whatever team the TI-99/4A console BASIC tells me to this year.  Check back on this thread in February.

 

image.png.7091be7e70ea9b0e97361450ddb18700.png

 

I ran this model with last year's data.  How to interpret the results?  Given two pieces of data for each of the two teams in the Superbowl (Vegas line before the game and "actual" line after the game for the 20 games preceding the Superbowl), this program runs a simple linear regression model on it.  The model said given a line of -4.5, the predicted post-game line would be -4.79 for the Rams.  The model would suggest betting the Rams, but only offers 0.29 points of "proposition value" above the existing line.  Vegas thinks the Rams will win by a little more than 4 points and our model agrees.  The model said given a line of +4.5, the predicted post-game line would be -3.91 for the Bengals.  Vegas thinks that the Bengals will lose by a little more than 4 points, but out model suggest they will win by almost 4 points.  There is 8.41 points of "proposition value" above the existing line.  So, listening to our trusty console BASIC, we would bet the Bengals.  And...

 

We would have won last year.  The Bengals ended up losing by 3 points....they would have covered the spread of 4.5.

 

P.S. I know the Statistics Command Module has linear regression, but I would have missed out on programming it by hand ;)

 

SUPERBOWL.txt

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not sure what a Vegas line is, but the fact that you programmed the statistical operations by hand gives you a Gold Star in my book! :)

Reminds me of when I did the same to analyze experimental data back in college in the early 80's. All I had was the console and a tape recorder, so I wrote down all the results on paper and saved them to tape...

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 months later...

Back again with updated code for this year's game.  Can the TI-99/4A console BASIC go 2-0?

 

 

 

image.png.77d1ea718bfdd876df77c8c3500041eb.png

My model shows the Eagles with 6.90 points of proposition value above their line of -2.  Chiefs have 6.68 points of proposition value above their line of +2.  Not exactly a ringing endorsement, but as a life-long Eagles fan, I'm happy I don't have to bet against them!   

 

SUPERBOWL2023.txt

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
  • 11 months later...
3 hours ago, OLD CS1 said:

TI BASIC underestimates the power of Swiftie money.  The story is already written.

Are implying that somehow the SuperBowl,

that bastion of American culture,

with the most amazing half-time show,

the best and most expensive commercials ever conceived by mortals

and the biggest sporting event in the *world...

 

is somehow rigged? 

 

 

 

*Where world means the USA. ;)

 

 

 

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, TheBF said:

Are implying that somehow the SuperBowl,

 

is somehow rigged? 

Yes.  Nothing is above corruption.

2 hours ago, CapitanClassic said:

Taylor Swift had to re-record all her masters. I highly doubt that she could be bought to participate in any rigging.

Not about her.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, OLD CS1 said:

Not about her.

Oh. I thought this was about the whole conspiracy theory that Taylor Swift is part of a psyop to sway votes. And the Super Bowl is rigged to help make that happen.

 

Seems crazy to ally yourself with people who tried to screw you out of money. I assume the who internet psyop thing is mostly some kind of four-Chan joke.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

So am I supposed to bet it all or the 49ers or Taylor Swift? How is Taylor Swift even going to win the Super Bowl without a team of clones? Is she even supposed to play? Are there really 49 of the 49ers? I'm so confused!

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/5/2024 at 7:21 PM, CapitanClassic said:

Oh. I thought this was about the whole conspiracy theory that Taylor Swift is part of a psyop to sway votes. And the Super Bowl is rigged to help make that happen.

That is ridiculous and convoluted.  The simplest answer is the NFL just wants the money her fandom brings.  And, young men had better hope she and that guy never break up.  Considering Swifties have cornered the market of young... women... if they break up, there are going to be a bunch of pissed of young women never watching football, again.  That rolls down hill, so to say*.  Going to be a lot of young men no longer allowed to watch football.  God help any young Chiefs fans: I envision a bunch of TikTok videos of guys burning their Kansas City memorabilia, tear flowing down their cheek, with a pissed off chick in the background with hands on her hips.

 

*

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, JB said:

So am I supposed to bet it all or the 49ers or Taylor Swift? How is Taylor Swift even going to win the Super Bowl without a team of clones? Is she even supposed to play? Are there really 49 of the 49ers? I'm so confused!

"Stay tuned for answers to these important questions, and more!"

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, JB said:

So am I supposed to bet it all or the 49ers or Taylor Swift? How is Taylor Swift even going to win the Super Bowl without a team of clones? Is she even supposed to play? Are there really 49 of the 49ers? I'm so confused!

She's a singer, right?  There has to be a song in there.

"Send in the Clones"

"Everybody Loves a Clone, so why don't you?"

If you can name who performed the originals, you're as old as I am. 8-)

K-R.

Edited by Kchula-Rrit
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...