Switch1995 Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 I needed a brain-break from studying GPL and ASSM, so I put together this little program for fun. I'm going to put $100 on whatever team the TI-99/4A console BASIC tells me to this year. Check back on this thread in February. I ran this model with last year's data. How to interpret the results? Given two pieces of data for each of the two teams in the Superbowl (Vegas line before the game and "actual" line after the game for the 20 games preceding the Superbowl), this program runs a simple linear regression model on it. The model said given a line of -4.5, the predicted post-game line would be -4.79 for the Rams. The model would suggest betting the Rams, but only offers 0.29 points of "proposition value" above the existing line. Vegas thinks the Rams will win by a little more than 4 points and our model agrees. The model said given a line of +4.5, the predicted post-game line would be -3.91 for the Bengals. Vegas thinks that the Bengals will lose by a little more than 4 points, but out model suggest they will win by almost 4 points. There is 8.41 points of "proposition value" above the existing line. So, listening to our trusty console BASIC, we would bet the Bengals. And... We would have won last year. The Bengals ended up losing by 3 points....they would have covered the spread of 4.5. P.S. I know the Statistics Command Module has linear regression, but I would have missed out on programming it by hand SUPERBOWL.txt 8 Quote Link to comment https://forums.atariage.com/topic/342672-can-a-computer-built-around-superbowl-xv-predict-superbowl-lvii/ Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Vorticon Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 Not sure what a Vegas line is, but the fact that you programmed the statistical operations by hand gives you a Gold Star in my book! Reminds me of when I did the same to analyze experimental data back in college in the early 80's. All I had was the console and a tape recorder, so I wrote down all the results on paper and saved them to tape... 4 Quote Link to comment https://forums.atariage.com/topic/342672-can-a-computer-built-around-superbowl-xv-predict-superbowl-lvii/#findComment-5142197 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Switch1995 Posted January 31, 2023 Author Share Posted January 31, 2023 Back again with updated code for this year's game. Can the TI-99/4A console BASIC go 2-0? My model shows the Eagles with 6.90 points of proposition value above their line of -2. Chiefs have 6.68 points of proposition value above their line of +2. Not exactly a ringing endorsement, but as a life-long Eagles fan, I'm happy I don't have to bet against them! SUPERBOWL2023.txt 2 Quote Link to comment https://forums.atariage.com/topic/342672-can-a-computer-built-around-superbowl-xv-predict-superbowl-lvii/#findComment-5199819 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Switch1995 Posted February 13, 2023 Author Share Posted February 13, 2023 Model is now 50-50. Still happy with the performance. Every "expert" picked the Eagles before the game as well. Will dig up this thread again next year and try again! 1 Quote Link to comment https://forums.atariage.com/topic/342672-can-a-computer-built-around-superbowl-xv-predict-superbowl-lvii/#findComment-5208363 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Switch1995 Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 Back again for the 3rd year running this model. 49ers are getting 9.00 points of proposition value above their line of -2. Chiefs are getting 2.40 points of proposition value above their line of +2. TI BASIC says bet the 49ers! SUPERBOWL2024.txt 4 Quote Link to comment https://forums.atariage.com/topic/342672-can-a-computer-built-around-superbowl-xv-predict-superbowl-lvii/#findComment-5404001 Share on other sites More sharing options...
+OLD CS1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 17 hours ago, Switch1995 said: TI BASIC says bet the 49ers! TI BASIC underestimates the power of Swiftie money. The story is already written. 1 3 Quote Link to comment https://forums.atariage.com/topic/342672-can-a-computer-built-around-superbowl-xv-predict-superbowl-lvii/#findComment-5404569 Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDMike Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 (edited) 2 hours ago, OLD CS1 said: TI BASIC underestimates the power of Swiftie money. The story is already written. Add her to the equation and she'll come out on top...non swiftee here Edited February 5 by GDMike 1 Quote Link to comment https://forums.atariage.com/topic/342672-can-a-computer-built-around-superbowl-xv-predict-superbowl-lvii/#findComment-5404695 Share on other sites More sharing options...
+TheBF Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 hours ago, OLD CS1 said: TI BASIC underestimates the power of Swiftie money. The story is already written. Are implying that somehow the SuperBowl, that bastion of American culture, with the most amazing half-time show, the best and most expensive commercials ever conceived by mortals and the biggest sporting event in the *world... is somehow rigged? *Where world means the USA. 2 Quote Link to comment https://forums.atariage.com/topic/342672-can-a-computer-built-around-superbowl-xv-predict-superbowl-lvii/#findComment-5404730 Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapitanClassic Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Taylor Swift had to re-record all her masters. I highly doubt that she could be bought to participate in any rigging. 1 Quote Link to comment https://forums.atariage.com/topic/342672-can-a-computer-built-around-superbowl-xv-predict-superbowl-lvii/#findComment-5404789 Share on other sites More sharing options...
+OLD CS1 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 hours ago, TheBF said: Are implying that somehow the SuperBowl, is somehow rigged? Yes. Nothing is above corruption. 2 hours ago, CapitanClassic said: Taylor Swift had to re-record all her masters. I highly doubt that she could be bought to participate in any rigging. Not about her. 1 Quote Link to comment https://forums.atariage.com/topic/342672-can-a-computer-built-around-superbowl-xv-predict-superbowl-lvii/#findComment-5404870 Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapitanClassic Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 7 minutes ago, OLD CS1 said: Not about her. Oh. I thought this was about the whole conspiracy theory that Taylor Swift is part of a psyop to sway votes. And the Super Bowl is rigged to help make that happen. Seems crazy to ally yourself with people who tried to screw you out of money. I assume the who internet psyop thing is mostly some kind of four-Chan joke. 1 Quote Link to comment https://forums.atariage.com/topic/342672-can-a-computer-built-around-superbowl-xv-predict-superbowl-lvii/#findComment-5404878 Share on other sites More sharing options...
+TheBF Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, OLD CS1 said: Yes. Nothing is above corruption. I know you are right that nothing is above corruption, but it is still deflating. 1 Quote Link to comment https://forums.atariage.com/topic/342672-can-a-computer-built-around-superbowl-xv-predict-superbowl-lvii/#findComment-5404910 Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 So am I supposed to bet it all or the 49ers or Taylor Swift? How is Taylor Swift even going to win the Super Bowl without a team of clones? Is she even supposed to play? Are there really 49 of the 49ers? I'm so confused! 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment https://forums.atariage.com/topic/342672-can-a-computer-built-around-superbowl-xv-predict-superbowl-lvii/#findComment-5404931 Share on other sites More sharing options...
+OLD CS1 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/5/2024 at 7:21 PM, CapitanClassic said: Oh. I thought this was about the whole conspiracy theory that Taylor Swift is part of a psyop to sway votes. And the Super Bowl is rigged to help make that happen. That is ridiculous and convoluted. The simplest answer is the NFL just wants the money her fandom brings. And, young men had better hope she and that guy never break up. Considering Swifties have cornered the market of young... women... if they break up, there are going to be a bunch of pissed of young women never watching football, again. That rolls down hill, so to say*. Going to be a lot of young men no longer allowed to watch football. God help any young Chiefs fans: I envision a bunch of TikTok videos of guys burning their Kansas City memorabilia, tear flowing down their cheek, with a pissed off chick in the background with hands on her hips. * girlfriend is vegetarian.mp4 1 1 Quote Link to comment https://forums.atariage.com/topic/342672-can-a-computer-built-around-superbowl-xv-predict-superbowl-lvii/#findComment-5404938 Share on other sites More sharing options...
+OLD CS1 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 7 minutes ago, JB said: So am I supposed to bet it all or the 49ers or Taylor Swift? How is Taylor Swift even going to win the Super Bowl without a team of clones? Is she even supposed to play? Are there really 49 of the 49ers? I'm so confused! "Stay tuned for answers to these important questions, and more!" 1 1 Quote Link to comment https://forums.atariage.com/topic/342672-can-a-computer-built-around-superbowl-xv-predict-superbowl-lvii/#findComment-5404939 Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDMike Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 No it's not defame gate yet Quote Link to comment https://forums.atariage.com/topic/342672-can-a-computer-built-around-superbowl-xv-predict-superbowl-lvii/#findComment-5404962 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kchula-Rrit Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 (edited) 1 hour ago, JB said: So am I supposed to bet it all or the 49ers or Taylor Swift? How is Taylor Swift even going to win the Super Bowl without a team of clones? Is she even supposed to play? Are there really 49 of the 49ers? I'm so confused! She's a singer, right? There has to be a song in there. "Send in the Clones" "Everybody Loves a Clone, so why don't you?" If you can name who performed the originals, you're as old as I am. 8-) K-R. Edited February 6 by Kchula-Rrit 4 Quote Link to comment https://forums.atariage.com/topic/342672-can-a-computer-built-around-superbowl-xv-predict-superbowl-lvii/#findComment-5404969 Share on other sites More sharing options...
Switch1995 Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 You have failed me for the last time, Admiral Quote Link to comment https://forums.atariage.com/topic/342672-can-a-computer-built-around-superbowl-xv-predict-superbowl-lvii/#findComment-5408905 Share on other sites More sharing options...
+OLD CS1 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 1 Quote Link to comment https://forums.atariage.com/topic/342672-can-a-computer-built-around-superbowl-xv-predict-superbowl-lvii/#findComment-5408949 Share on other sites More sharing options...
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