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- The U.S. Presidential Election Contest -


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Tired of prognosticating in the "politics & religion" forum...and feeling like everyone's ignoring you anyway? Here's your chance to shine as armchair analyst with the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Contest!




There are three separate components to this contest.


1. Predict-the-Popular Vote Contest!


Participants must guess the anticipated popular vote garnered by each of Messrs. Bush, Kerry, and Nader. The guess with the best correlation to actual election-night (or week after) results will win this mini-contest. Guesses must be rounded to the nearest hundredth of a percentage point.


Example: Candidate X: 45.44%

Candidate Y: 39.93%



The winner will receive a boxed Lynx game (of my choice). No, it will not be a crappy game. All entries must be posted by 2400, MST, on November 1, 2004.



2. Predict the Electoral College breakdown Contest!


Participants must guess the number of electoral college votes won by each of Bush and Kerry, and guess who will win the electoral college vote in each of the following ten states:













Any ties will be resolved by way of a coin toss (by me). And no, American coinage will not be used for the coin-toss.


The winner of this mini-contest will receive a boxed Lynx game (of my choice; I've got a lot of boxed Lynx games) and a special (:ahoy:) Jaguar CD game.


3. "The Aggregate Winner" contest


All participants who enter both contests will be ranked according to actual election-night results on a numerical basis (e.g. 1-10, etc., with 1 being "best"). The overall winner of these two contests will win

an Atari Lynx with two boxed games.


The winner(s) of all three contests will be named within three days of the U.S. election in November notwithstanding any court actions appealing the results.


One entry per AA member, please. ;)

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  • 1 month later...

My guesses...


Bush will have 47.63% of the popular vote.

Kerry will have 46.98% of the popular vote.

Nader will have 5.39% of the popular vote.


Bush will have 275 electoral college votes and will win the following states:







Kerry will have 263 electoral college votes and will win thre following states:








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1. Predict-the-Popular Vote Contest!


Kerry: 50.99%

Bush: 49%

Nader: 0.01%


2. Predict the Electoral College breakdown Contest!


With Colorado possibly splitting the electoral votes, getting a number is tricky but here's my best guess:

Kerry: 281

Bush: 257

Nader: zero, zip, zilch, nada, the goose egg, null, etc.


I may be missing an electoral vote but I'm sure I got all 538


WV: Bush

FL: Kerry

MI: Keryy

NJ: Kerry

CO: Kerry

NM: Kerry

WA: Kerry

OR: Kerry

AZ: Kerry

TN: Bush


If I do win, do check with me as I have several Lynx games and I'd rather get a game I don't have (there are still a few "under $3 on eBay" games that I don't have)

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Here's my entry:



For contest # 1:


Bush: 46.30%

Kerry: 52.23%

Nader: 0.47%




For Contest # 2:


Bush: 263

Kerry: 275


WV : Bush

FL : Bush

MI : Bush

NJ : Kerry

CO : Bush

NM : Kerry

WA : Kerry

OR : Kerry

AZ : Kerry

TN : Bush

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An interesting election has shown that we armchair analysts were about as accurate as those Florida exit polls. But the winners, nonetheless are:


Popular vote: Kemstead, for being the only entrant to correctly predict a Bush popular vote win;


Electoral college: a tie between Snorlaxnut and Xot, who each correctly guessed 7 out of 10 states! Although Tony theoretically disqualified himself by not guessing total numbers ( :roll: ), he will indeed get a game.


Aggregate: Susuwatari who, though not winning either contest, was close enough -- sorta -- overall to score the big Lynx package.




California Games





Jimmy Connors Tennis

Power Factor

STUN Runner


Kondre will send each of the winners their wins; first PM gets priority on games won (although I do owe 2 more to Brett...)

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