(Insert stupid Blog name here) - Predictions for 2010

RSS Bot · January 2, 2010

So here we are... the year Jupiter explodes and turns into a miniature sun, causing the Soviet Union and United States to finally declare the Cold War over, and millions of innocent black monoliths to die horribly in the resulting conflagration.

Which brings up the inevitable question, what else is going to happen this year, and how were my predictions for last year?

Let's find out! First... 2009:

Nothing spectacular from Apple, but steady progress and upgrades. - Right. But that was pretty-much a no-brainer. However, what I didn't expect was a 27" iMac with a Core i7 CPU. I want one of those.
Apple will ship OS X 10.6 sometime in the summer. - Right. Another no-brainer.
The iPhone will continue to see minor hardware improvements, but most advancements will come through software. I'll likely buy one after the next hardware revision. - Right. However, I didn't expect the considerable speed improvement of the 3GS. I did end up buying one though, and it's awesome (AT&T notwithstanding).
The Apple TV will either be transformed this year into something more useful, or it will die off. - Wrong. It's still not useful, and it's still not dead.
Blu-Ray will gradually increase its market share, but won't replace DVDs anytime soon. Expect to see a lot more Disney/Pixar films on Blu-Ray this year. - Right. The Blu-Ray sections in the video stores are much larger now, and prices have been slashed on players and movies (WalMart has a Samsung player for $128... but there are two problems with that: 1) it's a Samsung and 2) you have to buy it at WalMart). Disney and Pixar have released a number of films on Blu-Ray, and have made the very smart move of including DVD versions in the same packaging. Why? Parents have portable and car-based DVD players for their kids to watch movies on, so they need that DVD copy. They're also including digital versions for computers and portable media players, which is also smart. Finally, they have an upgrade program for DVD owners, but need to advertise it better.
The Wii will continue to dominate. - Right. But the "shiny new thing" factor seems to be wearing off. Sales dropped 20% this year. But it still holds a commanding lead.
The PS3 will continue to lag behind in a distant third, and will fall even further behind the other two. Sometime this year, Sony will cut the price on the PS3. It just won't be by enough. - Partially right. The price cut that happened - along with the introduction of the PS3 slim - boosted PS3 sales 16% this year. Even though in worldwide figures the PS3 is still in third place, it's gaining rapidly on the XBox 360, which fell 13% in sales.
Gran Turismo 5 still will not ship this year. - Right. Another no-brainer. But Gran Turismo for the PSP finally shipped after a delay of what... 5 years?
The new Star Trek movie is going to be dreadful. - Wrong. As much as I hated to admit it... Star Trek was a pretty-good movie. Preposterous, and not so much Star Trek as Star Trek flavored, but not horribly awful. I'm rather bummed-out about that.

Now then... onto 2010:

Apple will release a tablet computer. They'll announce it in January, but it won't ship until later in the year. It will be more than just a big iPod, and Apple will have some sort of killer feature or use for it that probably nobody has figured out yet. One thing that would be a great use: downloadable textbooks. This would be a huge boon to the education market. Cheaper e-textbooks that can be digitally updated. Man, I would've loved that when I was in college. The big question... can Apple make the tablet affordable enough?
If Apple's exclusivity deal with AT&T expires, Apple will add another carrier to the iPhone. But I don't think they'll outright dump AT&T, because Jobs would want to play the two companies against each other for Apple's benefit.
Final Cut Pro will see a major update this year, becoming a 64-bit application, and requiring OS X 10.6 and an Intel Mac. It will also see the introduction of Blu-Ray Studio Pro, along with Blu-Ray burners as an option in Mac Pros and high-end iMacs.
Blu-Ray will continue to gain market share. Players have dropped into that magic price zone that makes consumers seriously consider them as a replacement DVD player for that big screen HDTV they just bought. HDTVs are cheaper than ever, and that's going to drive more of an interest in HD content as people begin to see the difference between standard definition and HD channels, and begin to want a better movie watching experience. The U.S. broadband infrastructure still isn't - and won't be for several more years - robust enough for the masses to have downloadable HD content. Blu-Ray player prices will drop below $100, and movie prices will become even more competitive with DVDs. Expect to see more package deals like Disney/Pixar does with a DVD and digital copy included.
Star Wars will finally come out on Blu-Ray. Probably just in time for Christmas. It will not only include all six movies, but tons of deleted scenes and bonus materials including the option to watch the original theatrical versions. Yes - I really think that's going to happen. Blu-Ray's seamless branching makes it possible without having to release each version of a film on a separate disc.
Tron will come out on Blu-Ray this year, in advance of Tron: Legacy. Probably sometime in November, to cash in on the sequel's marketing hype and pre-Christmas sales. I'll buy it the minute it becomes available.
The visual effects in Tron: Legacy will be somewhat disappointing. I hope I'm wrong on this one, but somehow I think it will end up being less than it could (or should) be. I'm afraid they won't really explore the idea of just how much has changed in the last 25+ years, in terms of how the computer world looks. The movie should look like something we've never seen before, and be epic in scope. The brief glimpses of it so far don't show that. It looks almost like a watered-down, slicker version of the first movie. Admittedly, they have nearly a year to go before its release, and lots of post-production work to do. Maybe it's just not possible to create a movie that lives up to the kind of expectations I have for this one. Maybe they'll actually succeed, and what we've seen so far amounts to nothing in regards to the final film. But Hollywood - more often than not - gets it wrong.
Gran Turismo 5 for the PS3 will finally ship this year, but who knows exactly when. It will boost sales of the PS3, though.
The PS3 will see a larger hard drive added to the $299 base model, but no further price drops until 2011. (Really though - they need to bring it down to $249 $199, because it no longer has the advantage of being a cheap way into owning a Blu-Ray player).
The PS3 will pass the XBox 360 in worldwide sales, but will still lag behind in the U.S., unless Sony cuts the price of their games to bring in more of the casual gamer market. $50 - $60 per title is too expensive, especially when you can get really good iPhone apps for 99¢ - $6.99. The iPhone has literally become a game changer.
The Wii will see a price drop to $149 this year, which will boost sales briefly, but unless they come out with a new killer app for it, it will continue to lose ground to the XBox 360 and PS3 (but still remain in first overall).
The successor to the Wii may be announced this year. It'll be an HD version of the Wii (with full backwards compatibility), and have better motion sensing capabilities than the current stock Wii. It will still be marketed as just a game machine though, and lack Blu-Ray capabilities.
I won't be doing a separate "Wishful Thinking" section in my predictions this year. Too much extra work.