Tales from... THE FUTURE!
Entry posted by Nathan Strum
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Working at a film school, dealing with technology every day, means I have to try and keep up on what's happening in video, computers and software as a regular part of my job. I seem to spend more time every year just trying to get a handle on new technology coming down the pike.
Also, I'm a Mac user, which is an interesting pursuit because of the whole rumor community that has popped up around Apple and its products. Trying to predict where they're going next seems to be a past-time for some, and an obsession for others.
I fall into the past-time, category, by the way.
Since I did something like this with the XBox 360, PS3 and Wii (which was still called the "Revolution") last year, I thought I'd once again reveal my complete ignorance to the world, and present my predictions for Apple this year:
- February 4th: Apple is rumored to have an announcement coming during the SuperBowl. Most are guessing this will be the announcement of the Beatles' catalog coming exclusively to iTunes. I think this is correct. I also think the exclusivity will be limited for probably six months, but that won't be played up during the commercial - only that it is exclusive. The Beatles' catalog has recently been digitally re-mastered, and with the iTunes store having some 70% of the market share, it only makes sense for Apple Corp. and Apple Inc. to bury the hatchet and make nice. (Apple Corp. has been irked about Apple Inc. getting into the music biz). Besides, Steve Jobs is a huge Beatles fan, so he'll make whatever concessions he needs to, in order for this to happen. Plus the bragging rights alone would be worth almost any cost to him. This will sell tons of downloads overnight, and may bring the iTunes store to its knees due to the traffic. I give the Beatles announcement an 80% chance of happening.
- February 4th: Would Apple use up a SuperBowl ad just for the Beatles? Seems unlikely. Remember - the iTunes store is there not to sell music, but to sell iPods. I suspect Apple is also going to announce a new, widescreen iPod, with touch-screen interface. Basically, this would be the iPhone, without all of the phone functionality, and with a hard drive. I'd look for a high end model at around 80 GB and $349 - $399, but not shipping until the end of February at the earliest. More likely March. Announcing this on Sunday? I'd give it 30%. But that it will happen at some point is a given.
- Spring/Summer: Apple is hard at work finishing up OS X 10.5 (Leopard). This is going to have some new, hardware-accelerated core graphic technologies in it. That much is known. What probably isn't appreciated yet is how much of a difference this will make in graphics and video applications. Whenever OS X 10.5 ships, and I wouldn't really expect to see it until May, possibly June, several related things will happen:
- Eight-core processor Mac Pros. This is going to be a hard-core, high-end pro machine, designed to take full advantage of 10.5's graphics crunching abilities. It's not geared at most people. It's geared towards Apple's original bread-and-butter: the graphics industry. Apple is waiting until 10.5 to release this machine, because right now, nobody will buy it. Why?
- Adobe. They haven't released Intel-native (aka Universal) versions of their apps yet for the Mac. This means all of their stuff currently runs slower than it would otherwise. I believe Adobe will announce, and ship, Universal versions of their apps right around the same time 10.5 ships, and that their apps will have been re-written to take full advantage of the core graphics of 10.5. They won't just run at full speed, they'll absolutely scream (at least, for some functions). Of course, they'll only scream their loudest on the high-end hardware, which is just fine with Apple. Adobe is bringing back Premiere for the Mac, and reportedly it will have tight integration with After Effects. This could be a very good thing for Adobe, since Apple dominates video editing on the Mac, but After Effects dominates effects and compositing. I expect to see a new version of After Effects at least demonstrated around this time, slated to ship by September, and it will offer some of the same real-time effects Apple's Motion already has. Photoshop CS3 will ship right around 10.5's release, and InDesign and Illustrator shortly afterwards (if not concurrently). All of them accelerated to some degree, and more tightly integrated than ever. Hopefully, Illustrator CS3 will also include backwards-compatibility with FreeHand files (since Adobe bought Macromedia out and killed Illustrator's only competition), but this may not happen until CS4.
- Apple will release a new version of Final Cut Studio, including major updates to Final Cut Pro, DVD Studio Pro, and Motion. These will all take advantage of the core graphics in 10.5, and offer major speed improvements, but generally minor feature bumps otherwise. Still, speed counts, and people will line up to upgrade their Macs and software. DVD Studio Pro may offer Blu-Ray authoring features, but it may still be a little too early in the Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD battle for that. However, if the new Mac Pros feature Blu-Ray burners in them, DVD SP is likely to support authoring to some degree. (Note: there's a big difference between "authoring" and "burning". Authoring is all about being able to create all of the content and functionality present in a Blu-Ray disc, and is much more involved than just burning something onto a disc.)
- iLife '07 and iWorks '07 will ship. These will likewise be accelerated for 10.5, and in fact, will require it. That's why they haven't shipped yet (or even been announced). iWorks will finally include some spreadsheet functionality, and hopefully regain some of the basic database tools that AppleWorks used to have. It'll never compete with MS Office or FileMaker, but it doesn't have to. Most people don't need the overstuffed bloatware of those programs to handle their needs at home. Apple doesn't make these apps to sell these apps, they make them so the Mac is more appealing to average computer buyers, and in this case, to also sell more copies of 10.5. (It's possible iDVD may support Blu-Ray authoring too, but I wouldn't count on Blu-Ray drives showing up in anything but Mac Pros for months to come. If Sony's having trouble making them for the PS3, Apple's not going to have it any easier.)
- Eight-core processor Mac Pros. This is going to be a hard-core, high-end pro machine, designed to take full advantage of 10.5's graphics crunching abilities. It's not geared at most people. It's geared towards Apple's original bread-and-butter: the graphics industry. Apple is waiting until 10.5 to release this machine, because right now, nobody will buy it. Why?
All of this is geared to make the roll-out for 10.5 everything the current Vista roll-out is not. Apple needs to give its customers reasons to upgrade, and the OS itself isn't enough. There needs to be a combination of professional apps and hardware to revitalize the content-creation user base, and Apple wants to have that driven by the OS. Apple has been working with Adobe to update their applications, and if 10.5 isn't a requirement for Adobe's (and Apple's) new updates, I'd be surprised. At the very least, 10.5 will offer some capabilities you simply can't get without it, and will not only help drive new Mac sales, but 10.5 sales as well.
Percentages? Eight-core Mac Pro - 85%. There are hardware hackers who have already proven you can just drop an eight-core chip into an existing Mac Pro. But the software doesn't take advantage of it - yet. New Adobe software: Photoshop - 90%, Illustrator - 75%, InDesign - 80%, After Effects (by September) - 65%. Illustrator w/ FreeHand compatibility - 5%. New Final Cut Studio - 95%. Full Blu-Ray authoring support - 45%. Some Blu-Ray support - 70%. New iLife and iWorks - 85%.
[*]I expect to see revisions to Apple's laptops sometime this year. Hopefully the addition of a smaller, super-lightweight model. Apple is making some amazing strides with miniaturization, so why not? At any rate, I'd expect an announcement at Apple's WWDC (developers' conference) in June (or shortly thereafter). The MacBook Pros are most likely to be updated, since their basic design is the oldest still in Apple's lineup. I'd give new MacBook Pros by the end of Summer an 80% chance of happening. A super-lightweight MacBook - 35%. (One interesting rumor is that it may be flash-memory based, instead of using a hard drive. But I'd say that's still more than a year off, at best.)
[*]Finally, we'll see the AppleTV product evolve into something more useful than just a "stuff I bought on iTunes player". I think 10.5 will bring with it TiVo-like capabilities that will allow you to record and stream anything you want to your TV. But I'd say the chance Apple will do it is only about 20%. They're too busy "playing nice" with the networks, and selling shows for them through iTunes. But there's a 100% chance someone else will do this.
Things that won't happen:
- Apple-branded high-definition TVs. Why compete with other companies in this area? Unless they can come out with a revolutionary product, it isn't worth it for Apple to go toe-to-toe with Sony, Samsung, LG, and the 600 other HDTV manufacturers out there.
- A tablet computer. Not enough market for it. I'm sure Apple has developed one, but I doubt it's worth going into mass production for them.
- Apple officially supporting Windows on their computers. While you'll still be able to install it using BootCamp, they're more interested in having people run Windows using Parallels software instead. Apple lists it all over their website, and this gives them Windows compatibility without the support headaches.
- Apple allowing OS X to run on generic PCs. Nope. Apple likes their hardware profit margins very much, thank you. Plus, Steve Jobs is too big of a control freak to allow OS X to run on other people's machines. Ain't gonna happen. Never underestimate Steve Jobs' desire to control the entire user experience.
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