(Insert stupid Blog name here) - Predictions for 2009

RSS Bot · January 7, 2009

Well, last year I made my predictions for 2008. Let's see how I did...

"Apple will release a lightweight MacBook." - Right.
"Apple will release a touch-screen tablet computer, with a stand/docking station that basically turns it into an iMac (with the addition of a wireless keyboard and mouse)." - Wrong. I have no doubt Apple has a touch-screen tablet computer in their labs, but I doubt they'll bring it to market. The market just isn't there (especially with the iPhone filling a lot of that niche.) However, if you really want one...
"Some major update of the Apple TV. I don't think Apple has given up on this yet. I'm hoping they'll add DVR capabilities to it, but I'm not holding my breath. I expect it to be more of a movie/TV show player for stuff you buy (or rent) through iTunes. The difference will be - you can rent movies directly through it from the comfort of your sofa." - Partially right. You can rent movies from your sofa, but still no DVR though. I've got a DVR through AT&T's U-Verse now anyway, so I don't need one from Apple. So nyahh!
"Updated iPhone. 3G is already a given, but I expect to see one with GPS built-in, too." - Right. I never would have predicted the success of the App store though. Really... who could have guessed?
"Blu-Ray support will finally show up this Summer at WWDC. With it, will come either an update to DVD Studio Pro, or an all new app for authoring Blu-Ray discs." - Wrong. Still waiting for this to happen. Steve Jobs hinted that the sticking point is licensing issues with Sony. That really wouldn't surprise me one bit.
"Blu-Ray will win over HD-DVD." - Right. I almost bought a Blu-Ray player over Thanksgiving weekend (the Sony BDP-S350 was selling for $199, but now the price is back up, so I'm holding off). I already have one Blu-Ray disc that I got for Christmas (Wall-E), but there are only a handful of other titles at this point that I'd want to buy. So I can wait.
"Lawsuits over HD-DVD. After HD-DVD disappears, expect people to start suing retailers, movie studios and Toshiba, for having sold them an obsolete technology." - Wrong. Never materialized, although if you search around, you can see some discussions about it.
"The Wii will increase its lead - if it can keep good software coming." - Right. The Wii is dominating, despite a lower price (and two bundled games) for the XBox 360. Fun gameplay, it seems, wins out over flashy graphics. Who knew?
"The PS3 will remain a distant third unless two things happen:
1. Blu-Ray is declared the winner, and the format wars end. Then people will be actively looking for a Blu-Ray player. But only if:
2. Sony slashes the price of the PS3. I expect to see a slim-line, lower cost PS3, but not until the end of 2009."
  - Right and Wrong. The PS 3 is still a distant third. Even though Blu-Ray won out, Blu-Ray players are now half the price of a PS3, as is the XBox 360. So people looking for current-gen gaming and a Blu-Ray player don't need to go to Sony. Sony never came out with a lower cost PS3, but needs to now, more than ever.

So how about some Predictions for 2009?

Nothing spectacular from Apple, but steady progress and upgrades. Updated iMacs and Minis with faster CPUs and better graphics chipsets (like what are now in the MacBooks) are a certainty. The Mac Pros will also get a new CPU this year (the Core i7) and faster graphics.
Apple will ship OS X 10.6 sometime in the summer. It's already known this is going to be a stability/performance release, which is sorely needed. Unfortunately, it's also the first OS X release to require an Intel based Mac. I still own a PPC (G5) iMac.
The iPhone will continue to see minor hardware improvements (more storage, better camera) but most advancements will come through software. I'll likely buy one after the next hardware revision.
The Apple TV will either be transformed this year into something more useful, or it will die off.
Blu-Ray will gradually increase its market share, but won't replace DVDs anytime soon. It needs further cuts in Blu-Ray player prices, and a lot more Blu-Ray discs on the market. Expect to see a lot more Disney/Pixar films on Blu-Ray this year.
The Wii will continue to dominate. There seems to be no end of demand for this thing.
The PS3 will continue to lag behind in a distant third, and will fall even further behind the other two. Sometime this year, Sony will cut the price on the PS3. It just won't be by enough.
Gran Turismo 5 still will not ship this year.
The new Star Trek movie is going to be dreadful. However, it's going to be worth paying to see, just for the train-wreck value of it.

Finally, a new feature: Wishful Thinking (things that should happen, but probably won't):

Apple should merge the Mac Mini and Apple TV into one product. Expand the functionality of the latter, and decrease the price of the former.
Apple needs to suck it up and embrace Blu-Ray. Not everyone is going to be happy downloading their grainy "HD" movies off iTunes. Add it to the Mac Mini/Apple TV at a price point that makes it a no-brainer for people to buy for their home entertainment systems.
Nintendo should buy out Atari from Infogrames. The Big N is the perfect owner for all of Atari's classic properties. The Wii and DS are ideal platforms for being able to download and play those classic games exclusively. Infogrames is still a company of idiots, run by idiots.
Sony should slash the price of Blu-Ray players to around $129, and the PS3 to $199. At some point, they're going to have to eat the cost on these things big-time to gain market share. They should also start up a "Greatest Hits" series for the PS3, bringing low-cost titles (under $25) to the console.
Star Wars (the original theatrical release) needs to come out on Blu-Ray, in a fully restored, cleaned-up version, but without any digital "enhancements". C'mon George, get with it already. (Same goes for Empire and Jedi.)
Tron needs to come out on Blu-Ray, and likely will. But will it be this year? It depends on if Tron 2.0 is far enough along in production for a theatrical trailer to be included on it.
Star Trek movies on Blu-Ray. Do a good job this time. Clean them up. Remaster them. And don't skimp on the bonus stuff. (You can, however, skip over ST5 and all of the Next Gen films.)
Raiders of the Lost Ark on Blu-Ray. (See also: Star Wars.) Why isn't this on Blu-Ray already? Seems to me it took forever for the DVD to come out, too.