Who will be the next hardware maker to exit the market?

[Bill Loguidice]

Yeah, some "champions of "real gaming" don't like to admit it, but I think there's strong evidence that mobile gaming, be it tablets or especially smartphones, are more than enough gaming for most people. Anecdotally, in my own house, I have 11 and 9 year old daughters, as well as a 16 month old. My older daughters had a few years where they were into DS's and 3DS's, but for the most part have played the most on tablets and their smartphones. And now, it's almost all smartphones for them (in addition, of course, to their computers and the occasional console).

 

My 16 month old has her own iPad 2 and uses it extensively every day. Touch screens are undeniably intuitive and easy even when you're nowhere near to having the motor skills or cognitive ability for traditional controllers. That's some powerful stuff right there, and that's what Nintendo is up against and something they weren't really up against in previous generations, even with the DS, when Nintendo was at the height of their handheld popularity. There's probably a very small window these days where a true gaming handheld has appeal to kids before they transition over to their own smartphones, which have some pretty compelling games/experiences all their own. Today you're more likely to see kids being placated in stores and restaurants with tablets or especially smartphones than you are with a 2DS or 3DS.

 

Anyway, to further the anecdote, in my own house, my kids literally have access to 500+ consoles, computers, and handhelds. They instead focus their energy on what I described earlier, though. I don't think that's an accident or all that unusual. In my opinion, one form of videogaming is not more pure or better than another. It's all in the implementation. The platforms will always change, but not the core idea of what makes a videogame a videogame.

 

In any case, that is indeed why I stated earlier and agree with what others have stated that Nintendo can no longer rely on the handheld market, which is only really healthy in Japan. Nintendo has also been notoriously poor at releasing games on a regular basis. Rallying behind a single platform that plays to their strengths in both handhelds and consoles and allows them to release more software on a regular basis has to be their best shot at having another big success and stopping the downward trend in profits that is giving investors the heebie jeebies.

[Unbeliever]

Perhaps you're right in that regard, that us "champions of real gaming" would rather not admit where gaming is going, since we didn't have access to that technology growing up. The kids today certainly have adapted to mobile devices such as tablets and smart phones for their gaming needs. Personally, I have no desire to play my games on tablets or phones and would rather play them on my 3DS. However, as time goes by, I will most likely be in the minority and the new generations of gamers will consider portables like the 3DS and others a thing of the past.

 

As you said, in Japan it's a completely different mentality to gaming. Over here is something completely different. There are some adults that really enjoy the smart phone/tablet gaming and even I to some degree had gotten into it earlier for awhile but since has dropped it. Despite the lack of games, you have to admit that when one is released it's a really strong showing of purchases for it (like the recently released Fire Emblems games that are selling like hotcakes). It's a matter of degrees, I think, for support. In no way is your logic flawed but certainly is the natural progression of things to come and you make some spot on points for how things are going.

 

I think, overall, Nintendo will "get it" and adapt as needed to stay fluid in the current market.

[JamesD]

Well, Nintendo may be getting it already, but with only 4 titles on the way, it sounds more like testing the waters than adapting to changes in the market.
The odd thing here is that due to SONY and Microsoft's success in the console market, they may actually be slower to transition to this new market.
But then with the cash Microsoft has they aren't exactly under pressure to adapt either.
I'd expect them to simply buy an existing mobile game developer.

[Major Havoc 2049]

Microsoft is already in mobile app and game development in a big way with Surface and Windows Phone. Some of their games and apps are also on iOS and Android. Minecraft: Pocket Edition, Skulls of the Shogun, Xbox Smartglass, Halo: Spartan Strike, Halo: Spartan Assault, Age of Empires: Castle Siege, Crimson Dragon: Side Story, to name a few. The quality of their mobile game output is actually quite high and some of their games are really fun. As a Live member, you even get free mobile games on Microsoft devices, like on the X360 and XB1. Some of the mobile games, such as the Halo games, are linked to the console games and you can unlock extra gear in The Master Chief Collection and a some achievements are linked to the PC and console version of Strike and Assault. There is also cross-buy as well, which is really cool. If you play games in the whole Microsoft ecosystem, Microsoft is quite advanced and has a lot to offer gamers. Just like with online gaming, Nintendo has a looong way to go to catch up to MS.

[cybercylon]

While my kids also have access to more consoles than you can shake a stick at, more time is spent on the tablets than before. Without the various Pokemon games and Nintendo franchises, I am not sure my daughter would touch her 3DS anymore.

 

When they are not on the tablets, my daughter is pretty much glued to Minecraft. Since she likes to use mods and does a bunch of other stuff, that is played on on the computer as the pocket edition is too limiting for her. Plus, she wants a big screen when in creative mode.

 

My son is older and still plays things like DA, Project Cars, etc, so that is on the console.

 

I am regretting the second Wii U purchase though. Given their creativity, I thought Super Mario Maker would be a big hit, but of they only had the choice between tablets and the Wii U, I suspect most of the time would be spent on tablets.

 

Of course sales of tablets have suffered year over year sales losses. Many point to the rise of big smart phones. Could be one factor, but any half decent made tablet introduced in the last 2-3 years are much more capable than those released before, so people may simply be using them longer and don't see a need to upgrade. Doesn't take much CPU power to play Angry Birds or Candy Crush. I know there are more advanced games than those, but that is a niche use and those individuals might also be using a PC or console anyways.

[enoofu]

From my understanding all three are looking at dropping the home Console business, since they are all looking at cloud based servers running the hardware since in theory you can make a platform that uses just about any modern computing hardware though streaming

 

Makes sense since one this technology is developed fully you may be able to play the same games on any device, and they can easily upgrade the platform on the server side

 

 

Sony is testing out PlayStation Now

https://www.playstation.com/en-us/explore/playstationnow/

 

Microsoft has been working on a PC streaming service to their Hardware

http://www.theverge.com/2015/7/29/9061467/microsoft-windows-10-pc-game-streaming-to-xbox-one

 

Nintendo has filed quite a few cloud base Hardware patents recently

[Andromeda Stardust]

 

While my kids also have access to more consoles than you can shake a stick at, more time is spent on the tablets than before. Without the various Pokemon

Of course sales of tablets have suffered year over year sales losses. Many point to the rise of big smart phones. Could be one factor, but any half decent made tablet introduced in the last 2-3 years are much more capable than those released before, so people may simply be using them longer and don't see a need to upgrade. Doesn't take much CPU power to play Angry Birds or Candy Crush. I know there are more advanced games than those, but that is a niche use and those individuals might also be using a PC or console anyways.

Sorry your kids ignored the wii-U. I think the deal with tablets is they are so expensive yet all of them have closed off ecosystems and artificially limit what you can do with them. For instance they all have web browsers, but iPad for instance won't even let you download a file and store it on an SD card. What's the point in buying a $600 iPad that won't let you copy files when a cheaper PC or notebook computer will let you do all that and more? And I heard they are eliminating the USB ports from their new Macbook Air, with a single USB C port that also serves as the charging port, so you have to disconnect the charger and run it off batteries just to plug in a device. And you can't use USB type A devices without an expensive and proprietary adapter. And $1200 for all of it. I swear Apple is all about form over function, like they want to sell you expensive functional art. Stupid.

[cybercylon]

Sorry your kids ignored the wii-U. I think the deal with tablets is they are so expensive yet all of them have closed off ecosystems and artificially limit what you can do with them. For instance they all have web browsers, but iPad for instance won't even let you download a file and store it on an SD card. What's the point in buying a $600 iPad that won't let you copy files when a cheaper PC or notebook computer will let you do all that and more? And I heard they are eliminating the USB ports from their new Macbook Air, with a single USB C port that also serves as the charging port, so you have to disconnect the charger and run it off batteries just to plug in a device. And you can't use USB type A devices without an expensive and proprietary adapter. And $1200 for all of it. I swear Apple is all about form over function, like they want to sell you expensive functional art. Stupid.

 

I wouldn't say they 100% have ignored it. There is some Super Smash Brothers and Super Mario 3D world play, but not to the level I expected given their past usage with the Wii and the Nintendo franchised games. My daughter builds and builds on Minecraft, and I thought the Super Mario Maker bundle would be a hit. But a lot of time gets spent on her tablet. Her brother not quite as much.

 

We are largely an Apple house hold. Always have been. We don't always buy the latest and greatest which saves $$. I only switch over to Windows for work, though my daughters school laptop is a PC.

 

But yea.... the form of art stuff has gotten stupid. My MacBook Pro is the last model they made where I can replace the HD, upgrade the Ram, and poke around. It still well suits my needs. When it dies, I don't know. I still like OS X better, and at least it isn't monitoring everything like Windows 10 does. Everything by Apple is soldered in now. Not sure how true that is in the PC world.

 

We will always have a couple of computers. Tablets, phablets, etc are going to cut it for SPSS or MatLab anytime soon.

[Bilnick]

Not all tablets are $600 anymore. There are Kindle Fire tablets available for 50 dollars that will play the popular games just fine. Plus it comes with a charger! (unlike Nintendo's latest portable). The $100 Kids Kindle tablets come with a 2 year no questions asked warranty. Tablets also have YouTube, SnapChat , Instagram and all the other social media stuff that kids like. A PS Vita or 3DS can't compete with that. There are decent ​Samsung tablets for $150 if you want a name brand.

 

A few years ago when I would take my kids to soccer games, little league or whatever, the kids on the sideline would almost always have a DS to play with. Now it is exclusively tablets or phones. I asked my wife, who is a middle school teacher, how many kids bring a 3ds/Vita to school and her response was "The kids all have smartphones now, why would they need one of those?"

 

I think it is only us old people who like dedicated portable game systems anymore.

[Andromeda Stardust]

 

I think it is only us old people who like dedicated portable game systems anymore.

[Amstari]

Not all tablets are $600 anymore. There are Kindle Fire tablets available for 50 dollars that will play the popular games just fine. Plus it comes with a charger! (unlike Nintendo's latest portable). The $100 Kids Kindle tablets come with a 2 year no questions asked warranty. Tablets also have YouTube, SnapChat , Instagram and all the other social media stuff that kids like. A PS Vita or 3DS can't compete with that. There are decent ​Samsung tablets for $150 if you want a name brand.

 

A few years ago when I would take my kids to soccer games, little league or whatever, the kids on the sideline would almost always have a DS to play with. Now it is exclusively tablets or phones. I asked my wife, who is a middle school teacher, how many kids bring a 3ds/Vita to school and her response was "The kids all have smartphones now, why would they need one of those?"

 

I think it is only us old people who like dedicated portable game systems anymore.

The casual gamers have gone to smartphones and probably wouldn't have bought a dedicated handheld anyway. Parents will often give their old phones or tablets to their kids when they upgrade.

 

However there is still a dedicated following for the 3DS even among younger gamers, especially those into anime.

 

At conventions like Avcon I get hundreds Street Passes on my 3DS. Most of the people at Pokemon and Street Passes meets I go to are younger.

 

So it is probably more of a niche market now.

[cybercylon]

My only real experience with a dedicated portable game system is the PSP, and I unloaded that eventually. When I am on the go, I don't have time to game. When I am waiting in the doctors office, I just zone out and drool (kidding on the drool part )

[Yar_2084]

In my personal opinion, Nintendo will be the only ones to stick it out, for a few reasons... Firstly, they're stupid, or not stupid, but rather they do things the way that they want they to and my gut says they'll keep going until their money runs out, or they focus solely on handhelds. Also, they're the only console manufacturer who makes games for their system and, lastly, Satoru Iwata, the man knew what games were supposed to be. Sony have made it clear they want the Playstation to become a service rather than a console platform and Microsoft, I don't have a solid reason for their exit, other than they don't make much money and with consumers getting pissed at the Xbone, I just don't see them sticking around for much longer.

 

Adding to @Amstari 's comment, I'm also very suprised by how many street passes I get walking to work with my 2DS. I don't think Nintendo will be dropping handhelds or consoles for a couple more gen.

[Bill Loguidice]

In related news, EA puts the combined sales of PS4 and Xbox One at approximately 60 million (http://www.gamespot.com/articles/combined-ps4xbox-one-sales-reach-60-million-ea-exe/1100-6435250/). With more than 36 million PS4's sold, that puts the Xbox One at around 24 million. The Wii U is presently around 13 - 14 million if I recall the latest reliable figures correctly.

[enoofu]

In my personal opinion, Nintendo will be the only ones to stick it out, for a few reasons... Firstly, they're stupid, or not stupid, but rather they do things the way that they want they to and my gut says they'll keep going until their money runs out, or they focus solely on handhelds. Also, they're the only console manufacturer who makes games for their system and, lastly, Satoru Iwata, the man knew what games were supposed to be. Sony have made it clear they want the Playstation to become a service rather than a console platform and Microsoft, I don't have a solid reason for their exit, other than they don't make much money and with consumers getting pissed at the Xbone, I just don't see them sticking around for much longer.

 

Adding to @Amstari 's comment, I'm also very suprised by how many street passes I get walking to work with my 2DS. I don't think Nintendo will be dropping handhelds or consoles for a couple more gen.

I believe all three have stated they wanted to turn it into a service at some point

 

That why all three are starting to branch out into other devices over the years

[Atariboy]

No, they never did.

 

For instance the source you posted for your Microsoft claims was about the ability to locally stream XB1 games from said console to a locally networked Windows 10 equipped computer. Has nothing to do with leaving the console business behind.

 

Not only did you read an awful lot into it that wasn't even there, they didn't even get it right and were instead going on about streaming Windows 10 games to a Xbox One, the exact opposite of the news back when they wrote that. What they were talking about is something that I believe only in recent days has Microsoft came out and even said they intend to do.

Edited March 2, 2016 by Atariboy

[enoofu]

Believe the technology holds true both way from XBOX, since streaming "PC" game to a XBOX , should over time allow them to stream games to other platforms reliability

 

Cloud-gaming is still having a Virtual "Console' on the server side and it not leaving the business its just changing the relationship of the end user devices

Edited March 2, 2016 by enoofu

[Atariboy]

Outside of what you said about the cloud since it does show interests in technology that could eventually make powerful consoles connected to our tv's obsolete (if Microsoft wants to move in that direction and our internet infrastructure makes improvements that allow for it to be done well and economically), it doesn't.

 

Streaming from console to computer and vice versa doesn't mean that they've came out and said that they're leaving the console business and you'll be sending your controller inputs through the internet to Redmond and receiving a video stream in return after the XB1 is replaced.

 

It's a sign that Microsoft is moving towards greater Windows and Xbox integration, but anything more is pure speculation.

Edited March 2, 2016 by Atariboy

[enoofu]

Microsoft did announced Project Delorean a few years ago which is going to be their Cloud Gamesystem which should be coming out in the next few years

 

I do agree they will probably also release another console sometime around 2020 and see which one customers want and that there will be serious problem for some users

[Atariboy]

They did not.

 

Project Delorean was/is a prediction algorithm to help conceal input lag, by making an educated guess on what the player is going to do before he does it so that the correct image is already on its way when they make that input.

 

While clear evidence of research in cloud computing, Microsoft never announced a cloud based game system and we can hardly proclaim that the Xbox One is the end. And even if the console world changes where we're buying streaming boxes with the Xbox brand plastered on it or playing authorized devices running Windows and such, it can hardly be said that they're leaving the business.

 

It will just be different than today under the hood, with the hard work done remotely.

Edited March 2, 2016 by Atariboy

[Yar_2084]

Apparently Phil Spencer has said he wants the Xbox One to be upgradeable

 

[enoofu]

Supposedly XBOX Project Delorean was leaked to the major Press in 2014 as a Cloud-base Nextgen also

---------------

Phil Spencer, announced that Microsoft's strategy going forward would be to focus on "building out a complete gaming ecosystem for Universal Windows Applications".

As part of the company's focus on a 'Universal Windows Platform', this would entail games being built as Universal Windows Apps (UWAs), designed to run on both Xbox and PC.

The gaming division at Microsoft is also working on a slew of cross-compatibility features, including cross-purchasing, meaning users that buy an Xbox One copy of a game will also get the PC version for free.

http://www.cloudpro.co.uk/collaboration/5562/xbox-live-news-microsoft-plans-to-merge-xbox-one-and-windows-gaming

Edited March 2, 2016 by enoofu

[Atariboy]

Your quote has nothing to do with cloud gaming and I don't see anything there about Project Delorean.

 

I'll have to look closer, but is there even anything about cloud gaming there? The top stories didn't have anything to do with it, at least.

Edited March 2, 2016 by Atariboy

[Janus]

Microsoft will only exit by selling the division off to someone else. Nintendo is more likely to fold the Hardware business as most of it's value is in it's IP.

[Andromeda Stardust]

They did not.

 

Project Delorean was/is a prediction algorithm to help conceal input lag, by making an educated guess on what the player is going to do before he does it so that the correct image is already on its way when they make that input.

 

While clear evidence of research in cloud computing, Microsoft never announced a cloud based game system and we can hardly proclaim that the Xbox One is the end. And even if the console world changes where we're buying streaming boxes with the Xbox brand plastered on it or playing authorized devices running Windows and such, it can hardly be said that they're leaving the business.

 

It will just be different than today under the hood, with the hard work done remotely.

Cloud gaming is unfeasible because there's too much lag with existing networks.

 

Try streaming Battletoads or Punchout from an emulator box halfway around the world. You'll get your ass kicked.