How long can Atari cartridges theoretically last?

[JPF997]

There is a lot of consern right now in the retro gaming community over the problem of disc rot, the disc's of early disc based console's like the PS1 and 2 weren't exactly made to last, especially if used  frequently, cartridges are know for lasting much longer than disc's but how much longer is the question, I have no doubt that in 30 year's most PS1 disc's  and console's will be filling landfills while most old Atari console's and cartridges will still be playable ( they were built to last after all, not like the crap made in China today ), but after that how much longer  can they theoretically last, 50, 100, 200 year's? Does anyone have a rough estimation  of much longer we can expect these cart's to work before they start falling apart, let me know if you do.

[JPF997]

Asking as a potential future collector 😉

[+wavemotion]

I'm a Software Engineer so take all this with as many grains of salt as you need.
 

I once asked a bright EE at work about this and he said with a good quality EPROM/EEPROM you could reasonably expect a solid 20+ years if it was protected from light/extreme temps/electrical surges/etc. But likely much more - there are some EEPROMS approaching 50 years and still working and there will be some working at the 100 year mark.

Masked ROMs are different - they are generally considered to be more resilient though the myriad of little fuses can blow from a number of extreme causes but mostly because the universe is pissed at you and decides to blow one fuse changing a 1 to a 0 and rendering Yorgle, the red dragon, invincible with a new thirst for vengeance for his fallen brethren. Most of those masked ROMs could last indefinitely... or near enough to it for you to not worry much about it unless you're switching your VCS on and off (with cart inserted) a dozen times per second in an attempt to 'fry' load some game (and even then, we've seen masked ROMs be pretty resilient).

 

Most Atari 2600 carts used masked ROMs... but the community has seen some with EPROMS instead (usually very small run games).

[Mockduck]

As a laserdisc occasional collector/viewer I'm well aware of the impact disc rot can have on a collecting community.   So far I haven't seen evidence of disc rot on any of my video game disc-based media. CD-Rs are garbage after about five to ten years, but that's expected, so far commercially stamped discs seem to be ok. With laserdisc it is about the glue used if I recall, unsure if CDs, DVDs, and Blu-rays will ever show the same issue.

[+x=usr(1536)]

1 hour ago, JPF997 said:

There is a lot of consern right now in the retro gaming community over the problem of disc rot, the disc's of early disc based console's like the PS1 and 2 weren't exactly made to last, especially if used  frequently,

Yup.  This particularly started affecting laserdiscs in a significant way starting in the late '90s.  Pretty much any optical disc media can be subject to it - that doesn't mean that they will be, but given that the major formats (CD, Laserdisc, DVD, Blu-Ray, various proprietary formats used by consoles, etc.) all use similar construction methods, it's definitely a real concern.  Related:

1 hour ago, JPF997 said:

cartridges are know for lasting much longer than disc's but how much longer is the question, I have no doubt that in 30 year's most PS1 disc's  and console's will be filling landfills while most old Atari console's and cartridges will still be playable ( they were built to last after all, not like the crap made in China today ),

There is a counterpart to disc rot that affects ICs: bit rot.  It's been known for decades as well.

 

Realistically, as long as the media (disc or IC) was manufactured in a clean environment, not abused during its lifetime, and was stored in environments that were no detrimental to its health, the lifespans can be considered indefinite.  What that really means is 'indefinite until it fails', which isn't easy to quantify.  I have no doubt that there will be a ton of media that outlasts our lifetimes and then some, but entropy being what it is most will not.

1 hour ago, JPF997 said:

but after that how much longer  can they theoretically last, 50, 100, 200 year's? Does anyone have a rough estimation  of much longer we can expect these cart's to work before they start falling apart, let me know if you do.

There's really no set number.  Magnetic media from the 1950s has been successfully read and recovered, while media from even the past decade may be unrecoverable. Wire recordings from much earlier than that are still playable. It's pretty much case-by-case.

[CapitanClassic]

Do people really worry about PSX games becoming delaminated? I realize the labels can be scratched (the reverse side contains the readable surface), but as long as you don’t scratch up the labels and you don’t melt the discs I figure they would last 50-100 years.

[Trinity]

Well we are worried about the end of times these days.

[Wildstar]

8 hours ago, JPF997 said:

There is a lot of consern right now in the retro gaming community over the problem of disc rot, the disc's of early disc based console's like the PS1 and 2 weren't exactly made to last, especially if used  frequently, cartridges are know for lasting much longer than disc's but how much longer is the question, I have no doubt that in 30 year's most PS1 disc's  and console's will be filling landfills while most old Atari console's and cartridges will still be playable ( they were built to last after all, not like the crap made in China today ), but after that how much longer  can they theoretically last, 50, 100, 200 year's? Does anyone have a rough estimation  of much longer we can expect these cart's to work before they start falling apart, let me know if you do.

Theoretically, in a theoretically perfect environment, up to an infinite time frame. However, we don't live in such a world. This depends on several factors. If you have a ROM burner and compatible ROM chips, it can last century plus timeframe if you can keep the contacts clean and especially in a drier environment. Most cartridges have copper contacts. If you have gold contacts or have gold plated the copper that is exposed to the moisture in the atmosphere, the PCB could last 100-200 years or longer. The ROM chip is the area of concern. Depending on how the ROM chips are manufactured, there can be types of degradation that will occur and effectively limit the life of such chips to matters of under a century. Most fairly modern (last 10-15 years) compatible replacement ROM chips could be programmed by a device called a ROM burner (not to be confused with CD-ROM burners) and they could last an extremely long time. The tin contact pins are your area you must be attentive to. tin oxidization can disrupt electrical signals. Those can be addressed with chemical solutions for that. Doing it when there is oxidation issues starting to appear and not overly using it, you can see the cartridge last 100-200 years maybe longer. Part of the matter is how well you maintain it and protect it from being damaged or deteriorated. Sticker labels will go away before the PCB would be unrepairable and permanently non-usable. Even ROM ICs made from China, today may last longer than some of the old ICs due to flaws in semiconductor fabrication proccesses and stuff used in early IC fabrication that is no longer done due to defects being identified.

 

My profession isn't semiconductor manufacturing but I have read stuff about that regarding IC manufacturing. 

 

https://semiengineering.com/what-causes-semiconductor-aging/

https://www.edn.com/what-causes-semiconductor-devices-to-fail/

 

"- Dopants become more mobile with heat. When you have a fully overheated chip the transistor can cease being transistors.This is irreversible.

 - Uneven heating can make the crystalline structure of Si break down. A normal person can experience by putting glass through temperature shock. It will shatter, a bit extreme, but it illustrates the point. This is irreversible."

 

Other known issues, ESDs and such. They can cause havok. Thermal cycling and heat is a common issues. Most new ROMs likely using CMOS process and more modern sub-micron fabrication compared to the 1 to 5 micron process back in the 70s and early 80s should result in a ROM chip using less power and less heat emission just look at the CMOS 65c02 and the 6502. In 1975, the NMOS 6502 could run 10 MHz due to a doubling on the doping used although normally rated for 5 Mhz. The 10 Mhz 6502 ran hot. Probably less than a modern Intel CPU but back in 1975, CPU's were not typically heatsinked. You can run a 65c02 at 15-20 Mhz and it runs fine at about the same heat emission as a 1-3 Mhz 6502 ran at. Mainland China already is in the sub nm chip level fabrication as Taiwan is as Japan and U.S. Most chips we say are from China is actually from Taiwan or the Hong Kong plants aside from those completely maid in China. However, most are still Taiwan because of TSMC which makes not only microprocessors but ROM chips, and everything else. They are top notch facilities. They aren't some jackass making ICs out of some rice farm hut. China isn't that backward world in that sense when it comes to semiconductor industry. It's big money for them.

 

Above are couple of articles linked to. Newer made ROM ICs most likely employ some measures to address some of the defect issues potentially making them more likely to last longer. There's no guarantees they'll last a century.

 

[juansolo]

For what it's worth, I used to have an extensive collection of games on disc, and after discovering multiple of them had started to rot, I tested them all, and sold the lot that were still good. Nintendo stuff, much like Sony DADC laserdiscs back in the day, seems to fair the worst. WiiU being the most prevalent. I had multiple WiiU discs that would no longer read. It wasn't wear either as when I went through testing them to sell, there was one that was still sealed that I opened up and wouldn't read. I had at least 5 bad discs. Gamecube and Wii were not quite as bad, maybe two or three of each there.

 

I sold up most of my collection when I discovered the rot had started. Moved over to ODE's for just about everything that had one. Indeed only my PC Engine (of the older stuff) still has a drive as that's a DUO and no one's done an ODE for that yet. But when and if they do, that'll be next.

 

Carts I collect, but it's mainly Atari, Famicom and Coleco carts. Later carts I sold up a while ago when the prices went stupid. Indeed I bought a flash cart when I was trying to get an N64 game and loose carts for it were starting to get to £100. That was my introduction flash carts and I didn't look back.

 

All of which just reinforces the need for preservation. You can't trust the media or the hardware to last. This is why we must archive everything so it can live on. Why things like emulation and the MiSTer project are so important.

Edited September 26, 2023 by juansolo

[Wildstar]

1 hour ago, juansolo said:

For what it's worth, I used to have an extensive collection of games on disc, and after discovering multiple of them had started to rot, I tested them all, and sold the lot that were still good. Nintendo stuff, much like Sony DADC laserdiscs back in the day, seems to fair the worst. WiiU being the most prevalent. I had multiple WiiU discs that would no longer read. It wasn't wear either as when I went through testing them to sell, there was one that was still sealed that I opened up and wouldn't read. I had at least 5 bad discs. Gamecube and Wii were not quite as bad, maybe two or three of each there.

 

I sold up most of my collection when I discovered the rot had started. Moved over to ODE's for just about everything that had one. Indeed only my PC Engine (of the older stuff) still has a drive as that's a DUO and no one's done an ODE for that yet. But when and if they do, that'll be next.

 

Carts I collect, but it's mainly Atari, Famicom and Coleco carts. Later carts I sold up a while ago when the prices went stupid. Indeed I bought a flash cart when I was trying to get an N64 game and loose carts for it were starting to get to £100. That was my introduction flash carts and I didn't look back.

 

All of which just reinforces the need for preservation. You can't trust the media or the hardware to last. This is why we must archive everything so it can live on. Why things like emulation and the MiSTer project are so important.

Agree. That's necessary to preserve. While, what I said, is possible for the carts but it takes moisture and temperature control and diligence to keep them preserved. Storing in the garage like so many were the kiss of death. Parents either didn't know better, didn't care to know better, or simply knew it will turn to crap but didn't care because it is not their. Some just shoved the stuff into a shed and forget about it, and the stuff turn to garbage because of zero environmental control, moisture/dew point resulted in mold and corrosion or rust to happen. Parents didn't care when they stuffed their children stuff in there when they grew up or went off to college. Yeah, it's protected... yeah right. My ass it is. Only from maybe outright theft but it is rotted to the point no one would bother to steal it. Things happen. When you have such things, you need to know how to preserve the equipment. The chemicals that deteriorates the stuff is in the air. Traces of it but it effects. Then you have simple oxygen in the air and moisture and rust happens and oxidization. Namely the elements of the atmosphere oxidizes many materials. If mold happens, there is biochemical produced by mold that breaks down just about every material over time at a varying rate. Some stuff lasts a long time in the right condition. Copper oxidizes in atmosphere. Look at statue of liberty or a penny that is only a few years old can turn to that dark brown quickly and then that green color not long after. That green is copper oxidization. Oxidized copper doesn't allow the flow of electricity very well at low voltage and low current levels. So, cartridge doesn't run. Early oxidization on contacts or low voltage arc blemishes can mess with signal continuity and cause problems. Sometimes not an issue with ac or dc power but can be for ttl logic, signal lines and such that are miniscule in current compares to the power lines on the cartridges. 

[jhd]

16 hours ago, llabnip said:

the universe is pissed at you and decides to blow one fuse changing a 1 to a 0 and rendering Yorgle, the red dragon, invincible with a new thirst for vengeance for his fallen brethren.

 

🤣 Thank-you for improving my Tuesday morning! 

[qrysdonnell]

For what it's worth I have a wide variety of stuff in my collection ranging from Fairchild carts up to Wii U games, and I can't think of anything I have that I've known to previously be good that has gone bad over the last decade or so. A lot of the older stuff was stored in the crawlspace of a garage in Phoenix for about 15 years - very hot and dry for sure.

 

I even have plenty of old personally recorded cassette and VHS tapes and while I haven't been through them all, I've never encountered one that doesn't play in a state that was reasonably close to its original state (which often wasn't that great!) Most of these have been around quite a bit, and never stored with any real care.

 

I would imagine most of this has survived a lot longer than anyone planned it to, and I don't see any signs of any of it dying any time soon!

 

 

 

[nadir]

6 hours ago, qrysdonnell said:

I even have plenty of old personally recorded cassette and VHS tapes and while I haven't been through them all, I've never encountered one that doesn't play in a state that was reasonably close to its original state (which often wasn't that great!) Most of these have been around quite a bit, and never stored with any real care.

Indeed, magnetic tape seems to be a far better long term media than optical.  I've got a bunch of 4 track reel to reel tapes here from the 60's and 70's and every single one will still play fine.  I cannot say the same for my CDs from the '90's and 2000's where half of them are failing...

[+x=usr(1536)]

1 hour ago, nadir said:

I cannot say the same for my CDs from the '90's and 2000's where half of them are failing...

I'm seeing the same thing here, too.  It seems like CDs pressed between 1984 and 1992-ish were of higher build quality than ones from the mid-'90s on to the early 2000s.

 

My theory: that was the time of peak CD sales, so cranking them out as quickly and cheaply as possible was key; longevity wasn't - and especially not once digital music formats (including streaming) started becoming mainstream.

[JPF997]

1 hour ago, x=usr(1536) said:

I'm seeing the same thing here, too.  It seems like CDs pressed between 1984 and 1992-ish were of higher build quality than ones from the mid-'90s on to the early 2000s.

 

My theory: that was the time of peak CD sales, so cranking them out as quickly and cheaply as possible was key; longevity wasn't - and especially not once digital music formats (including streaming) started becoming mainstream.

No doubt about it, when I still had my old PS2 most games were heavily scratched and it wasn't because I was careless, the more you played the more scratched the disc became just being inside the console working, with the PS3 blue ray discs I noticed a massive upgrade in the disc quality, scratches from simply playing the game were very hard to notice and now with the PS4 and the PS5 this issue is now non existent.

[JPF997]

6 minutes ago, JPF997 said:

Ups something went wrong when posting my last comment, ended up posting the same thing twice, so... enjoy this I guess

 

[Video]

I figure its centuries with care. In your lifetime I doubt you'll lose many ic based games. The only cart medium I've had active problems with is actually lynx, which I think has more to do with the thin card games are on, being flexible enough to cause the chip to break a trace or something. No idea, but lynx is the one system I've got that I've had games actively die on.

 

People mention magnetic media, but the truly old stuff is analog and relies on your brain to decode it, while you may not "hear" the difference, it is there. Digital discs will cause far more problems as the computer decodes them and it has to make sense to the computer.

 

You can copy digital files (and analog, for that matter) but despite peoples lack of understanding, copying does degrade the data slightly. There's no such thing as a perfect copy, regardless of method used, but even here while the original medium may have a short life, you could use it for your entire life.

 

Personally I wouldn't worry to much, its all going to outlive me, the real question is how long can our kids, grandkids, etc, expect to use it?

[Flyindrew]

What amazes me is that I have floppy disks from like 1983 that work perfectly after 40 years.

[Giles N]

Theoretically:

 

At 0 K, they can last forever unless you put them down on the surface of an astronomical object too severely…

[+slx]

I also had at least 2 WiiU discs that look perfect but don't load. Other than that most old stuff except very few old floppies worked fine. 

[Video]

I find the longevity of most formats seems to depend on being an original owner or not. I don't know why, but anything I've owned as the original owner seems fine, regardless of format. Most anything I've had issues with seem to be third party ownership. Maybe storage method? I don't necessarily care more for my stuff than others, but even the relatively unused stuff lives somewhere in my house instead of non climate controlled storage.

 

Outside lynx which just seems unreliable, most issues are battery related. (Many battery backed games I have are several decades old after all) but somehow, most my originally owned stuff seems to work fine, while any used titles I pick up seem to have dead batteries that need replaced before they will save.

[nadir]

On 10/4/2023 at 5:25 AM, slx said:

I also had at least 2 WiiU discs that look perfect but don't load. Other than that most old stuff except very few old floppies worked fine. 

Pretty much all my old floppies failed.  They seemed to get some kind of surface scale on them too and even the few good floppies would not read until I cleaned the drive after trying one of the many failed.

[schuwalker]

On 9/25/2023 at 2:49 PM, Mockduck said:

As a laserdisc occasional collector/viewer I'm well aware of the impact disc rot can have on a collecting community.   So far I haven't seen evidence of disc rot on any of my video game disc-based media. CD-Rs are garbage after about five to ten years, but that's expected, so far commercially stamped discs seem to be ok. With laserdisc it is about the glue used if I recall, unsure if CDs, DVDs, and Blu-rays will ever show the same issue.

I have three of the earlier Discovision titles with the gray jackets. Two of out of the three are suffering from laserrot. Sucks because one of them is Battlestar Galactica. I also have a Dragon's Lair arcade disc that has a snowy effect on the screen - I was told that's early signs of rot.

 

I've been unloading a bunch of DVD's lately to thin the media collection. Upon viewings so far, encountered over a dozen so far that simply will not play on two different players. Hundreds more to go but not a good start. The "flipper" discs seem to be the worst.

Edited October 8, 2023 by schuwalker