Intellivision homebrew releases by year - Deep Dive

[+cmadruga]

Based on @Rev's original post and updated 2022 releases, I put together the chart below.

Analysis

 

The blue line is the # releases per year.

Interesting to see the staggering number of releases in 2012.

Seems like it was the first "golden year" of homebrew releases.

 

That peak was only surpassed 4 years later in 2016, and that was after the rise of Intybasic in 2014 and the first Intybasic Programming Contest in 2015.

 

Anyway, it is exciting to see the general increase in # releases over the last 20+ years!

 

It is also very clear how 2020-2022 was an anomalous period.

Board supply constraints from 2020-2021 were partially alleviated in 2022, which led to an apparent second "golden year" of homebrew releases.

 

But... was 2022 really a golden year?

 

Differently from 2012, the demand in 2022 seems to have been driven in big part by pent-up demand from 2020-2021.

That is a reasonable assumption if we calculate the average of 2020-2022 releases.

We are looking at (10+11+26)/3 = 16... that number is pretty much in line with # releases from previous years (2018-2019).

 

Therefore, the staggering # releases in 2022 does not seem to represent a real departure from history. In spite of it being a record year in absolute terms.

Counter intuitive, isn't it?

 

What can be expected in 2023 then? Is it going to be an even bigger year than 2022?

 

Well, the red line in the chart represents what the # releases would have been if we forecasted it using the previous 5 years as basis.

(Simple linear regression method.)

 

Notice how the forecast for 2022 was 23 releases vs the 26 we got.

That seems to reinforce the notion that 2022 was not extraordinary in itself, it was more about pent-up demand.

 

Anyway, if we exclude the anomalous 2020-2022 from the historical series, the forecast for 2023 corresponds to 24 releases. 

That is somewhat in line with 2022.

 

It will be interesting to see what will happen this year.

 

We still have pent-up demand associated with limited JLP supply at this point. Maybe 2024 will be a bigger year than 2023 because of that.

 

Anyway, this was fun.

If you read this far, thank you! Let me know your thoughts!

 

[+cmart604]

7 hours ago, cmadruga said:

Based on @Rev's original post and updated 2022 releases, I put together the chart below.

Analysis

 

The blue line is the # releases per year.

Interesting to see the staggering number of releases in 2012.

Seems like it was the first "golden year" of homebrew releases.

 

That peak was only surpassed 4 years later in 2016, and that was after the rise of Intybasic in 2014 and the first Intybasic Programming Contest in 2015.

 

Anyway, it is exciting to see the general increase in # releases over the last 20+ years!

 

It is also very clear how 2020-2022 was an anomalous period.

Board supply constraints from 2020-2021 were partially alleviated in 2022, which led to an apparent second "golden year" of homebrew releases.

 

But... was 2022 really a golden year?

 

Differently from 2012, the demand in 2022 seems to have been driven in big part by pent-up demand from 2020-2021.

That is a reasonable assumption if we calculate the average of 2020-2022 releases.

We are looking at (10+11+26)/3 = 16... that number is pretty much in line with # releases from previous years (2018-2019).

 

Therefore, the staggering # releases in 2022 does not seem to represent a real departure from history. In spite of it being a record year in absolute terms.

Counter intuitive, isn't it?

 

What can be expected in 2023 then? Is it going to be an even bigger year than 2022?

 

Well, the red line in the chart represents what the # releases would have been if we forecasted it using the previous 5 years as basis.

(Simple linear regression method.)

 

Notice how the forecast for 2022 was 23 releases vs the 26 we got.

That seems to reinforce the notion that 2022 was not extraordinary in itself, it was more about pent-up demand.

 

Anyway, if we exclude the anomalous 2020-2022 from the historical series, the forecast for 2023 corresponds to 24 releases. 

That is somewhat in line with 2022.

 

It will be interesting to see what will happen this year.

 

We still have pent-up demand associated with limited JLP supply at this point. Maybe 2024 will be a bigger year than 2023 because of that.

 

Anyway, this was fun.

If you read this far, thank you! Let me know your thoughts!

 

Nice! Love me some data analysis. My gut tells me 2023 will come in above the forecasted 24 games, with the important qualifier being only if boards are available. 

[+5-11under]

Video games AND a chart? What's not to like? 

 

Standard ROM boards have been available throughout all of the past 3 years, but JLP boards, I think, were in limited supply.

 

[wolfy62]

That's an awesome chart,breakdown and analysis!

Thank you for all your efforts on this Carlos,that's really cool.😊👏

[Sinjinhawke]

16 hours ago, cmadruga said:

Based on @Rev's original post and updated 2022 releases, I put together the chart below.

 

 

Looks like 2002, 2006, 2007, 2009 and 2010 were the only years I was able to get everything.

[+the1hatman]

21 hours ago, cmadruga said:

Based on @Rev's original post and updated 2022 releases, I put together the chart below.

 

 

the1idiot: Do you wanna talk homebrews or would you rather do the math?

 

Carlos:

 

the1moron: 😲